General Outlook
Core PCE for July rose 0.3% m/m and 2.9% y/y, while headline PCE held at 2.6% y/y. Futures markets still price a high chance of a September Fed rate cut. The US Dollar Index ended Friday near 97.9. The coming week is compacted by the US Labor Day holiday on Monday and then key releases: ISM Manufacturing on Tuesday, ISM Services and ADP on Thursday, and August Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday.
EUR/USD
The pair finished Friday near 1.1686 after recovering mid-week. Immediate resistance sits at 1.1720-1.1750; a break would open 1.1800-1.1850. On the downside, first support is 1.1640-1.1600, then 1.1550. The bias stays cautiously constructive while markets price a September cut, but stronger-than-expected ISM or payrolls could lift the dollar and cap gains.
XAU/USD (Gold)
Gold ended Friday around $3,448 per ounce, holding its powerful uptrend. Resistance is layered near $3,450-3,480, then $3,500. Initial support is $3,405-3,360, with a deeper cushion near $3,300. Softer growth signals would tend to keep dip-buying in play, whereas a robust jobs report could trigger a pullback toward lower supports.
BTC/USD
Bitcoin trades around $108,000-108,500 this weekend after setting a record above $123,000 in mid-August. Immediate resistance is $112,500-115,000, then $118,000-120,000. Closest support sits at $108,000-105,000; a break lower could test $103,000, while a close back above $115,000 would refocus bullish momentum.
Conclusion
Into 01-05 September, EUR/USD retains a slight upside tilt while rate-cut odds stay elevated, gold remains well bid near recent highs, and bitcoin consolidates below its mid-August peak. Volatility risk is elevated: ISM prints and, above all, Friday’s NFP could quickly reset rate expectations and drive counter-moves across the dollar, bullion and crypto. Note that US markets are closed on Monday, 01 September, for Labor Day.
NordFX Analytical Group
Disclaimer: These materials are not an investment recommendation or a guide for working on financial markets and are for informational purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a complete loss of deposited funds.
