March 2, 2024

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for March 04 - 08, 2024

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for March 04 - 08, 2024EUR/USD: Weak Bulls vs. Weak Bears

Throughout the past week, EUR/USD has been trading within a narrow channel. News favouring the euro pushed it towards the resistance level at 1.0865, while positive developments for the dollar brought it back to the support level at 1.0800. However, neither the bulls nor the bears had enough strength to break through these defence lines.

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February 25, 2024

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for February 26 - March 01, 2024

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for February 26 - March 01, 2024EUR/USD: ECB Rhetoric Against the Dollar

Data on consumer inflation (CPI) in the US, published on February 13, exceeded expectations. The Producer Price Index (PPI) also indicated a rise in industrial inflation in the country. However, despite this, the American currency failed to gain additional support. The Dollar Index (DXY) began to decline from February 14, while EUR/USD steadily climbed higher.

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February 17, 2024

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for February 19 - 23, 2024

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for February 19 - 23, 2024EUR/USD: A Week of Mixed Data

The macroeconomic statistics released last week were mixed in both the United States and the Eurozone. As a result, EUR/USD failed to break through either the 1.0700 support or the 1.0800 resistance, continuing to move within a narrow sideways channel.

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February 10, 2024

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for February 12 - 16, 2024

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for February 12 - 16, 2024EUR/USD: Dollar Dips but Promises a Rebound

Last week saw a scarcity of significant macroeconomic data. In anticipation of new drivers, market participants analysed the state of the US labour market and statements from Federal Reserve officials.

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February 3, 2024

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for February 05 – 09, 2024

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for February 05 – 09, 2024EUR/USD: Dollar Strengthening Prospects Increase

Throughout January, a series of indicators: GDP, employment, and retail sales, consistently highlighted the strength of the US economy. The threat of recession diminished, and it became evident that the high interest rate did not significantly hinder economic performance. Market participants were keenly awaiting the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting of the US Federal Reserve, scheduled for Wednesday, January 31, against the backdrop of these positive economic indicators.

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January 27, 2024

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for January 29 – February 02, 2024

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for January 29 – February 02, 2024EUR/USD: US Economy Delivers Surprises

The two most significant events last week occurred on Thursday, January 25. On this day, the European Central Bank (ECB) held a meeting, and preliminary GDP data for the US for Q4 2023 was published.

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January 20, 2024

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for January 22 – 26, 2024

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for January 22 – 26, 2024EUR/USD: Reasons Behind the Dollar's Strengthening

The past week was notably sparse in terms of macroeconomic statistics. Consequently, the market participants' sentiment largely depended on the statements made at the World Economic Forum in Davos (WEF). It's worth noting that this event, held annually at a ski resort in Switzerland, gathers representatives of the global elite from over 120 countries. There, amidst the sparkling, crystal-clear snow glistening in the sunlight, the world's power players discuss economic issues and international politics. This year, the 54th edition of the forum took place from January 15 to 19.

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January 13, 2024

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for January 15 – 19, 2024

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for January 15 – 19, 2024EUR/USD: Market Anticipates Federal Reserve Rate Cut

We published our global forecast for EUR/USD for the upcoming year in the last week of 2023. Now, moving from long-term projections, we return to our traditional weekly reviews, which have been conducted by the NordFX analytical group for over a decade.

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January 6, 2024

USD/JPY: 2023 Review and 2024 Forecast

USD/JPY: 2023 Review and 2024 ForecastAccording to statistics, USD/JPY (US Dollar/Japanese Yen) is among the top three most traded currency pairs in the Forex market. This is facilitated by the pair's high liquidity, which ensures narrow spreads and favourable trading conditions. This means that traders can enter and exit positions with minimal costs. Additionally, the pair exhibits very high volatility, providing excellent profit opportunities, particularly in short-term and medium-term operations.

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December 28, 2023

Forecast 2024: Bitcoin Yesterday, Tomorrow, and the Day After

Forecast 2024: Bitcoin Yesterday, Tomorrow, and the Day AfterThe main question, just a few years ago, was when the crypto bubble would burst. Over time, bitcoin gradually earned its place in the minds and portfolios of traders and investors. Competing actively with physical gold and other investment and defensive assets, digital gold emerged as a formidable contender.

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December 23, 2023

Forecast: What to Expect from the Euro and Dollar in 2024

Forecast: What to Expect from the Euro and Dollar in 2024Traditionally, we publish currency forecasts from leading global financial institutions at the turn of the outgoing and incoming years. Having maintained this practice for several years, it enables us to not only peer into the future but also to reflect on past predictions by experts and evaluate their accuracy.

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December 16, 2023

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for December 18 – 22, 2023

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for December 18 – 22, 2023EUR/USD: Dovish Fed Reversal

The fate of EUR/USD was determined by two events last week: the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting of the US Federal Reserve and the meeting of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB), which took place a day later. As a result, the euro emerged victorious: for the first time since November 29, the pair rose above 1.1000.

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December 10, 2023

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for December 11 – 15, 2023

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for December 11 – 15, 2023EUR/USD: Continuation of the Rate War

The labour market and inflation: these are the factors that Central Banks closely monitor when making decisions regarding monetary policy and interest rates. It is sufficient to recall the significant shift that occurred after the publication of October's inflation data in the United States. In November, the dollar weakened significantly, and the classical portfolio of stocks and bonds yielded the highest profit in 30 years! EUR/USD, starting at 1.0516, reached a monthly peak on November 29 at 1.1016.

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December 2, 2023

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for December 04 – 08, 2023

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for December 04 – 08, 2023EUR/USD: December – A Formidable Month for the Dollar

Who will start loosening the grip on their monetary policies earlier, the Federal Reserve (FRS) or the European Central Bank (ECB)? The discussion on this topic remains active, as clearly seen in the quotes' charts. The statistics from the past week did not allow EUR/USD to solidify above the significant level of 1.1000. It all began on Wednesday, November 29, with the publication of inflation data in Germany. The preliminary Consumer Price Index (CPI) in annual terms amounted to 3.2%, which is lower than both the forecast of 3.5% and the previous value of 3.8%. In monthly terms, the German CPI went even deeper into the negative territory, reaching -0.4% (against a forecast of -0.2% and 0.0% the previous month).

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November 25, 2023

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for November 27 – December 01, 2023

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for November 27 – December 01, 2023EUR/USD: Day of Thanksgiving and Week of Contradictions

Reminder that the American currency came under significant pressure on November 14 following the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report in the USA. In October, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased from 0.4% to 0% (m/m), and on an annual basis, it dropped from 3.7% to 3.2%. The Core CPI for the same period decreased from 4.1% to 4.0%: reaching the lowest level since September 2021. These figures caused a tumble in the Dollar Index (DXY) from 105.75 to 103.84. According to Bank of America, this marked the most significant dollar sell-off since the beginning of the year. Naturally, this had an impact on the dynamics of the EUR/USD pair, which marked this day with an impressive bullish candle of almost 200 pips, reaching resistance in the 1.0900 zone.

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November 18, 2023

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for November 20 - 24, 2023

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for November 20 - 24, 2023EUR/USD: November 14 - a Dark Day for the Dollar

In the previous review, the overwhelming majority of experts expressed opinions favouring further weakening of the American currency. This prediction came to fruition. The Consumer Inflation report in the United States, published on Tuesday, November 14, toppled the Dollar Index (DXY) from 105.75 to 103.84. According to Bank of America, this marked the most significant dollar sell-off since the beginning of the year. Naturally, this had an impact, including on the dynamics of EUR/USD, which marked this day with an impressive bullish candle, rising nearly 200 points.

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November 12, 2023

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for November 13 - 17, 2023

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for November 13 - 17, 2023EUR/USD: How Mr. Powell Aided the Dollar

The past week witnessed few significant events, which reflected in EUR/USD pair's fluctuations around 1.0700. Notably, there was a slight increase in the Dollar Index (DXY), starting at 105.05 and reaching a peak of 105.97 by Friday, November 10. This growth was primarily attributed to the "hawkish" comments made by the Chair of the Federal Reserve.

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November 4, 2023

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for November 06 - 10, 2023

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for November 06 - 10, 2023EUR/USD: A Bad Week for the Dollar

Throughout the week, the Dollar Index DXY, along with EUR/USD, appeared to be riding the waves, moving up and down. At the beginning of the week, preliminary data for Europe was released. In terms of annual growth, the GDP of the Eurozone in the third quarter was only 0.1%, which fell short of both the forecast of 0.2% and the previous figure of 0.5%. In addition, inflation took a downward turn – in October, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) stood at 2.9% (year-on-year), missing the forecast of 3.1% and the previous month's 4.3%.

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October 28, 2023

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for October 30 - November 03, 2023

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for October 30 - November 03, 2023EUR/USD: Awaiting the Pair at 1.0200?

Having started the past week on a positive note, EUR/USD approached a significant support/resistance level at the 1.0700 zone on Tuesday, October 24, before reversing and sharply declining. According to several analysts, the correction of the DXY Dollar Index that began on October 3rd, which correspondingly drove EUR/USD northward, has come to an end.

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October 21, 2023

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for October 23 - 27, 2023

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for October 23 - 27, 2023EUR/USD: No Interest Rate Hikes from the Fed and ECB in the Near Future?

Starting from the last days of September, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has been trading within a sideways channel. Macroeconomic data released last week did not provide a clear advantage to either the U.S. or the European currency. On Tuesday, October 17, U.S. retail sales data was published, showing a monthly increase of 0.7%. Although this figure was lower than the previous 0.8%, it substantially exceeded the market's average forecast of 0.3%. On the same day, the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for the Eurozone was also released, outperforming expectations with a reading of 2.3, considerably better than the forecast of -8, and marking a full rebound from the previous negative figure of -8.9.

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October 14, 2023

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for October 16 - 20, 2023

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for October 16 - 20, 2023EUR/USD: Inflation Drives Trends

At the beginning of last week, the Dollar Index (DXY) continued its decline that began on October 3, while global equity markets experienced growth. The dovish stance of Federal Reserve officials and the falling yields on U.S. Treasury bonds were driving factors. In recent days, the regulators have been actively persuading the market of the likelihood of a "soft landing" for the U.S. economy, suggesting a potentially prolonged pause in the cycle of monetary tightening. For instance, on Wednesday, October 11, Christopher Waller, a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, stated that "tightening in financial markets is doing some of our work for us," allowing the central bank to maintain a wait-and-see approach.

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October 7, 2023

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for October 09 - 13, 2023

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for October 09 - 13, 2023EUR/USD: Will the Pair Reach 1:1 Parity?

Throughout 2023, the U.S. economy has effectively withstood aggressive interest rate hikes. The market-anticipated recession has yet to materialize, allowing the Federal Reserve to maintain its hawkish monetary stance. This has led to a sharp increase in Treasury yields and significant strengthening of the U.S. dollar. The yield on 10-year Treasuries plummeted 46% since March 2020, doubling the previous decline witnessed in 1981 amid aggressive monetary tightening by the U.S. central bank. As for the Dollar Index (DXY), it has remained above the critical level of 100.00 throughout the year, while EUR/USD has dropped 6.5% from its July highs.

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September 30, 2023

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for October 02 - 06, 2023

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for October 02 - 06, 2023EUR/USD: Correction is Not a Trend Reversal Yet

The dynamics of the EUR/USD pair in the past week were atypical. In a standard scenario, combating inflation against the backdrop of a strong economy and a healthy labour market leads to an increase in the central bank's interest rate. This, in turn, attracts investors and strengthens the national currency. However, this time the situation unfolded quite differently.

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September 23, 2023

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for September 25 - 29, 2023

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for September 25 - 29, 2023EUR/USD: Verbal Interventions by the Federal Reserve Support the Dollar

In previous reviews, we extensively discussed the verbal interventions made by Japanese officials who aim to bolster the yen through their public statements. This time, similar actions have been taken by FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) officials, led by the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell. At their meeting on September 20th, the FOMC decided to maintain the interest rate at 5.50%. This was largely expected, as futures markets had indicated a 99% probability of such an outcome. However, in the subsequent press conference, Mr. Powell indicated that the battle against inflation is far from over, and that the 2.0% target may not be achieved until 2026. Therefore, another rate hike of 25 basis points is very much in the cards. According to the Fed Chairman, there is no recession on the horizon, and the U.S. economy is sufficiently robust to sustain such high borrowing costs for an extended period. Furthermore, it was revealed that 12 out of 19 FOMC members anticipate a rate hike to 5.75% within this year. According to the Committee's economic forecast, this rate level is expected to persist for quite some time. Specifically, the updated forecast suggests that the rate could only be lowered to 5.1% a year from now (as opposed to the previously stated 4.6%), and a decrease to 3.9% is expected in a two-year outlook (revised from 3.4%).

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September 16, 2023

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for September 18 - 22, 2023

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for September 18 - 22, 2023EUR/USD: ECB Triggers Euro Collapse

The past week was marked by two significant events. The first was the release of Consumer Price Index (CPI) data in the United States on September 13. The second was the meeting of the European Central Bank's (ECB) Governing Council on September 14.

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September 9, 2023

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for September 11 - 15, 2023

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for September 11 - 15, 2023EUR/USD: September 13 and 14 - Key Days of the Week

For the eighth consecutive week, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is rising, while EUR/USD is declining. The currency pair has retreated to levels last seen three months ago, settling in the 1.0700 zone. It was only the dollar bulls starting to lock in accumulated gains on Friday, September 8, that prevented further declines.

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September 2, 2023

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for September 04-08, 2023

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for September 04-08, 2023EUR/USD: No to Rate Hike, Yes to Dollar Appreciation!

Market participants continue to scrutinize the macroeconomic backdrop in the United States, attempting to discern (or speculate) whether the Federal Reserve will proceed with further increases to the federal funds rate. Following disappointing consumer confidence reports, weak ADP labour market data, and a slowdown in economic growth in Q2, market chatter has shifted towards the spectre of recession and the potential for a dovish pivot by the American regulator. U.S. economic growth currently remains above expectations. However, the revised GDP assessment still disappointed markets, as it fell short of initial projections.

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August 26, 2023

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for August 28 – September 01, 2023

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for August 28 – September 01, 2023EUR/USD: Mr. Powell and Mrs. Lagarde - Much Talk, Little Substance

Last week's business activity data from both sides of the Atlantic proved to be exceptionally weak. The euro came under selling pressure due to a decline in Germany's Services PMI from 52.3 to 47.3, which in turn pulled down the Composite Business Activity Indexes not only for Germany but for the entire Eurozone. The former dropped from 48.5 to 44.7, while the latter declined from 48.6 to 47.0. The GDP data for Germany for Q2, released on Friday, August 25, further confirmed that the economy of the united Europe is stagnating. On a quarterly basis, this metric stood at 0%, and on an annual basis, it showed a decline of -0.6%.

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August 19, 2023

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for August 21-25, 2023

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for August 21-25, 2023EUR/USD: What Strengthens the Dollar and What Can Weaken It

The US currency maintained its ascent last week. The minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)'s July meeting of the US Federal Reserve were published on Wednesday, August 16, suggesting the possibility of further monetary policy tightening.

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August 12, 2023

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for August 14-18, 2023

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for August 14-18, 2023EUR/USD: Inflation, GDP, and Prospects for Monetary Policy

Looking at the two-week flat trend on the EUR/USD chart, one is reminded that it's August, a vacation season. Even the US inflation data released on Thursday, August 10th, couldn't disrupt the relaxed demeanour of traders. And yet, they warrant close attention. The year-on-year Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth of 3.2% and core inflation at 4.7% came in below forecasts (3.3% and 4.8% respectively). The monthly CPI remained unchanged at 0.2%, marking the lowest figure in over two years. As for the GDP, previously released data confirmed a diminished risk of the national economy slipping into a recession. After a 2.0% year-on-year rise in the first quarter of 2023, the second quarter recorded a 2.4% growth, significantly surpassing market expectations of 1.8%.

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