The week of July 20–24 was dominated by a fresh Iran–Israel escalation and a new Red Sea front: Houthi attacks on Saudi tankers pushed Brent above $100 a barrel for the first time since May, before profit-taking and diplomacy headlines pulled it back to $96.78. The ECB left rates unchanged but signalled a September hike is likely, while the US imposed new tariffs on 60 trading partners, including the EU. Gold and silver staged a mid-week bounce but faded on rising yields and a firmer dollar. Bitcoin and Ethereum gave back early gains as spot ETF outflows resumed. Markets now turn to a packed week: the Fed, BoE and BoJ all meet, alongside US and Eurozone Q2 GDP and PCE inflation.
Closing prices, Friday, July 24, 2026:
EUR/USD – 1.1368 | Brent Crude – $96.78 | Gold (XAU/USD) – $4,055.70 | Silver (XAG/USD) – $58.49 | Bitcoin – $64,900 | Ethereum – $1,870
Key calendar, July 27–31: Mon – US Durable Goods Orders. Tue – US Consumer Confidence. Wed – Fed rate decision and Chair Warsh press conference. Thu – German/Eurozone flash Q2 GDP, BoE rate decision, US Q2 GDP advance estimate, US Core PCE, jobless claims. Fri – Bank of Japan rate decision, China PMIs, Eurozone flash CPI. The Iran–Israel conflict and Red Sea shipping disruption remain the key unscheduled catalyst.
EUR/USD
Closed at 1.1368 (prev. week 1.1439; 52-week range 1.1325–1.2079; daily rating: Sell). The euro slipped back below 1.14 as oil-driven inflation fears and new US tariffs on the EU reinforced dollar demand, briefly testing the 52-week low near 1.1325. Wednesday's Fed decision is pivotal: a hawkish hold from Chair Warsh, reinforced by firm Thursday GDP/PCE data, would extend the slide toward 1.1280–1.1325; a dovish surprise or strong Eurozone GDP would open 1.1450–1.1500.
Resistance: 1.1420, 1.1480, 1.1550 – Support: 1.1325 (52-week low), 1.1280, 1.1200
Baseline view: cautiously bearish while a hawkish Fed and tariff-driven dollar demand dominate. Base case: 1.1280–1.1480.
Brent Crude Oil
Closed at $96.78 (prev. week $88.10; 52-week range $58.72–$126.41; daily/weekly: Buy, monthly: Buy). Brent broke above $100 for the first time since May after Houthi strikes on Saudi tankers opened a new front alongside continued US strikes on Iran, then retreated on reports of a possible Pakistan-brokered path back to US–Iran talks. Rapidan Energy raised its Q4 forecast toward $100, citing prolonged Hormuz disruption. With no confirmed ceasefire, the bias stays bullish; fresh escalation reopens $100–105, while a credible breakthrough could accelerate the pullback toward $88–90.
Resistance: $100.00, $103.00, $105.00 – Support: $92.00, $88.00, $84.00
Baseline view: bullish but vulnerable to sharp pullbacks on diplomacy headlines. Base case: $88–$105.
Gold (XAU/USD)
Closed at $4,055.70 (prev. week $4,018.80; 52-week range $3,247.86–$5,595.46; daily: Neutral, weekly: Neutral, monthly: Sell). Gold recovered part of last week's drop, briefly touching $4,140 on renewed Middle East escalation before fading as oil-driven yields and a firmer dollar capped gains. Wednesday's Fed decision and Thursday's GDP/PCE data are the key swing factors: a hawkish Fed exposes $3,940–3,900 again, while a dovish surprise or fresh escalation could revive the safe-haven bid toward $4,140–4,180.
Resistance: $4,140, $4,180, $4,250 – Support: $3,980, $3,940, $3,900
Baseline view: neutral-to-cautiously-bearish, balanced between Fed risk and geopolitical demand. Base case: $3,900–$4,180.
Silver (XAG/USD)
Closed at $58.49 (prev. week $56.33; 52-week range $35.28–$121.67; daily: Neutral, monthly: Sell). Silver clawed back most of the prior week's losses, holding above the closely watched $58 support on resilient industrial demand from AI and clean-energy sectors and a projected 46-million-ounce 2026 supply deficit. ETF demand stays flat as investors await the Fed's tone.
Resistance: $60.00, $63.00, $65.00 – Support: $56.50, $54.40, $52.00
Baseline view: cautiously constructive while $58 support holds. Base case: $54–$62.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
Closed near $64,900 (prev. week $63,150; 52-week range ~$57,700–$126,200; daily: Neutral). Bitcoin touched $66,500 mid-week before retreating on renewed spot ETF outflows ($225m Thursday, snapping a week-long inflow streak) as higher Treasury yields raised the opportunity cost of holding crypto. The stalled CLARITY Act remains the key regulatory swing factor.
Resistance: $66,500, $68,000, $70,000 – Support: $62,000, $60,000, $57,700 (recent low)
Baseline view: neutral, contingent on Fed guidance and ETF flows. Base case: $60,000–$68,000.
Ethereum (ETH/USD)
Closed near $1,870 (prev. week $1,815; 52-week range $1,388–$4,956; daily: Neutral). ETH briefly cleared $1,935, its best level in weeks, before slipping back with Bitcoin on the broader crypto pullback. The $1,850–1,900 zone remains the key battleground, with Bitmine's continued accumulation and the "Lean Ethereum" roadmap still the medium-term drivers.
Resistance: $1,935, $2,000, $2,100 – Support: $1,800, $1,700, $1,650
Baseline view: cautiously neutral-to-constructive while ETH holds above $1,800. Base case: $1,700–$1,935.
Conclusion
A packed calendar – the Fed, BoE and BoJ all meeting, plus US/Eurozone Q2 GDP and PCE – will compete with the unresolved Iran/Red Sea conflict as the dominant driver. EUR/USD at 1.1368: a hawkish Fed favours 1.1280–1.1325, a dovish surprise opens 1.1450–1.1500. Brent at $96.78: bullish toward $100–105 unless diplomacy accelerates a pullback to $88–90. Gold at $4,055.70: base case $3,900–$4,180. Silver at $58.49: base case $54–$62. Bitcoin at $64,900: base case $60,000–$68,000. Ethereum at $1,870: base case $1,700–$1,935.
NordFX Analytical Group
Disclaimer: These materials are not an investment recommendation or a guide for working on financial markets and are for informational purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a complete loss of deposited funds.
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