The week of August 3–7 was dominated by Friday's US jobs report: nonfarm payrolls fell 23,000 in July, badly missing the roughly +85,000 consensus, while the unemployment rate eased to 4.1%. The dollar sold off, and gold and silver posted their best weekly gains since January. Brent extended its slide as talk of a Strait of Hormuz shipping corridor eased supply fears, while Bitcoin and Ethereum rose on renewed Fed rate-cut hopes. Markets now turn to a heavy US inflation slate, with CPI on Wednesday and PPI on Thursday.
Closing prices, Friday, August 7, 2026: EUR/USD – 1.1521 | Brent Crude – $82.21 | Gold (XAU/USD) – $4,342.18 | Silver (XAG/USD) – $64.13 | Bitcoin – $65,029 | Ethereum – $1,916
Key calendar, August 10–14: Wed – US CPI (July). Thu – US PPI (July), weekly jobless claims. Fri – US Retail Sales, Industrial Production, preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment. The unresolved Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz shipping talks remain the key unscheduled catalyst, alongside continued Fed commentary under Chair Kevin Warsh.
EUR/USD
Closed at 1.1521 (prev. week 1.1528; 52-week range 1.1325–1.2079; daily rating: Buy). The euro touched a seven-week high near 1.1573 after the weak payrolls print crushed September Fed-hike bets, before easing back toward 1.1520 into the weekend. The ECB held rates in July after June's hike, its first in three years. Wednesday's CPI is now pivotal: a soft print opens 1.1600–1.1700, a hot one drags the pair back to 1.1400–1.1350.
Resistance: 1.1600, 1.1650, 1.1700 – Support: 1.1450, 1.1400, 1.1350
Baseline view: cautiously bullish while soft US data and a two-sided Fed keep the dollar on the defensive. Base case: 1.1350–1.1700.
Brent Crude Oil
Closed at $82.21 (prev. week $87.93; 52-week range $58.72–$126.41; daily: Sell, monthly: Buy). Brent fell for a third straight week, sliding over 8% as Iran and Oman worked on a proposed shipping corridor through the Strait of Hormuz, even though Tehran's draft terms leave a durable reopening uncertain. Houthi attacks on Saudi positions remain a live risk. Continued diplomacy could extend the slide toward $78–75; escalation would reopen $88–92.
Resistance: $85.00, $88.00, $92.00 – Support: $78.00, $75.00, $72.00
Baseline view: neutral-to-bearish while Hormuz diplomacy holds, vulnerable to spikes on any escalation. Base case: $75–$88.
Gold (XAU/USD)
Closed at $4,342.18 (prev. week $4,107.00; 52-week range $3,311.46–$5,595.46; daily: Strong Buy, weekly: Strong Sell). Gold surged over 6% this week, its best performance since January, as falling oil prices, a softer dollar and tumbling yields following the payrolls miss revived haven demand. Wednesday's CPI is the key swing factor: a benign print keeps the rally intact toward $4,420–4,500; a hot reading risks a pullback to $4,200–4,150.
Resistance: $4,380, $4,420, $4,500 – Support: $4,250, $4,200, $4,150
Baseline view: constructive while yields and the dollar stay soft, though a hot CPI print is the main risk. Base case: $4,150–$4,500.
Silver (XAG/USD)
Closed at $64.13 (prev. week $57.99; 52-week range $36.96–$121.67; daily: Buy, weekly: Neutral). Silver outperformed gold, jumping over 4% on Friday alone to a six-week high as the payrolls miss compressed the gold/silver ratio to around 67 from near 71. Robust industrial demand and a projected 2026 supply deficit continue to underpin the medium-term picture.
Resistance: $66.00, $69.00, $72.00 – Support: $62.00, $60.00, $57.50
Baseline view: bullish while the dollar stays soft and the gold rally continues to lift the white metal. Base case: $57.50–$72.00.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
Closed near $65,029 (prev. week $63,600; 52-week range $57,877–$126,110; daily: Strong Buy). Bitcoin gained roughly 3.5% over the week, tagging a high above $65,400 after the weak jobs report boosted bets on a Fed pause in September. Continued spot ETF inflows and whale accumulation added support, though regulatory uncertainty around the stalled CLARITY Act and hard-fork chatter around the proposed BIP 110 change remain headwinds.
Resistance: $66,000, $68,000, $70,000 – Support: $63,000, $60,500, $57,877 (52-week low)
Baseline view: cautiously bullish, contingent on CPI-driven rate expectations and the durability of ETF inflows. Base case: $60,500–$68,000.
Ethereum (ETH/USD)
Closed near $1,916 (prev. week $1,875; 52-week range $1,388–$4,956; daily: Neutral-to-Buy). ETH extended its gradual recovery above the $1,900 handle as the softer payrolls data lifted risk assets broadly. Continued institutional accumulation via BlackRock's ETHA remains the key medium-term driver, with $1,800–1,900 now acting as support rather than resistance.
Resistance: $1,975, $2,050, $2,100 – Support: $1,850, $1,800, $1,700
Baseline view: cautiously constructive while ETH holds above $1,850. Base case: $1,700–$2,050.
Conclusion
Wednesday's US CPI is the biggest event of the week, with Thursday's PPI adding to the inflation picture and the Iran conflict/Hormuz talks the main unscheduled risk. EUR/USD at 1.1521: base case 1.1350–1.1700. Brent at $82.21: base case $75–$88. Gold at $4,342.18: base case $4,150–$4,500. Silver at $64.13: base case $57.50–$72.00. Bitcoin at $65,029: base case $60,500–$68,000. Ethereum at $1,916: base case $1,700–$2,050.
NordFX Analytical Group
Disclaimer: These materials are not an investment recommendation or a guide for working on financial markets and are for informational purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a complete loss of deposited funds.
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