The week of July 27–31 was dominated by the Fed's decision to hold rates steady despite three dissenting FOMC members, and by strong Eurozone Q2 GDP growth of 0.4% that pushed the euro back above 1.15. Renewed US strikes on Iran kept oil markets on edge, but Brent still retreated sharply from its earlier highs above $100 as Hormuz tanker traffic resumed. Gold held above $4,000 and closed its first monthly gain in five months, while silver eased on a firmer dollar. Bitcoin and Ethereum stayed rangebound as spot ETF inflows tentatively resumed after weeks of outflows. Markets now turn to a data-heavy week culminating in Friday's US jobs report.
Closing prices, Friday, July 31, 2026:
EUR/USD – 1.1528 | Brent Crude – $87.93 | Gold (XAU/USD) – $4,107.00 | Silver (XAG/USD) – $57.99 | Bitcoin – $63,600 | Ethereum – $1,875
Key calendar, August 3–7: Mon – US ISM Manufacturing PMI. Wed – US ADP Employment, ISM Services PMI, JOLTs Job Openings. Thu – US weekly jobless claims, Q2 productivity data. Fri – US Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate, the week's headline event. The unresolved Iran conflict remains the key unscheduled catalyst, alongside Q2 corporate earnings.
EUR/USD
Closed at 1.1528 (prev. week 1.1368; 52-week range 1.1325–1.2079; daily rating: Buy). The euro rallied back above 1.15 after Eurozone Q2 GDP grew 0.4%, double the forecast, while the Fed held rates with three dissents, muddying its outlook. Markets price roughly a 65% chance of a September Fed hike against growing ECB hike bets. Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls report is pivotal: a soft print opens 1.1600–1.1650, a strong one drags the pair back toward 1.1400–1.1350.
Resistance: 1.1580, 1.1620, 1.1650 – Support: 1.1450, 1.1400, 1.1325 (52-week low)
Baseline view: cautiously bullish while strong Eurozone data and a divided Fed support the euro. Base case: 1.1400–1.1650.
Brent Crude Oil
Closed at $87.93 (prev. week $96.78; 52-week range $58.72–$126.41; daily/weekly: Sell, monthly: Buy). Brent gave back most of its Iran-driven spike above $100 as Hormuz tanker traffic resumed and Gaza diplomacy progressed, even though the US continued fresh strikes on Iranian targets through Friday with no confirmed ceasefire. July still closed with a gain of over 20%. Any escalation could quickly reopen $95–100; continued diplomacy risks a further slide toward $80–82.
Resistance: $92.00, $96.00, $100.00 – Support: $85.00, $82.00, $80.00
Baseline view: neutral-to-bearish after the sharp pullback, but vulnerable to sudden spikes on any escalation. Base case: $80–$96.
Gold (XAU/USD)
Closed at $4,107.00 (prev. week $4,055.70; 52-week range $3,247.86–$5,595.46; daily: Neutral, monthly: Buy). Gold held comfortably above $4,000 and closed July with its first monthly gain in five months, supported by softer US inflation data and the Fed's hold, even as September-hike expectations near 65% capped the upside. Friday's payrolls report is the key swing factor: a weak print revives demand toward $4,180–4,250, a strong one exposes $3,980–3,940.
Resistance: $4,180, $4,250, $4,320 – Support: $4,020, $3,980, $3,940
Baseline view: neutral-to-constructive, balanced between a firmer dollar and lingering geopolitical demand. Base case: $3,940–$4,250.
Silver (XAG/USD)
Closed at $57.99 (prev. week $58.49; 52-week range $35.28–$121.67; daily: Neutral, monthly: Sell). Silver eased as the dollar rebounded from a more-than-one-month low, ending July only marginally changed after June's sharp decline. The gold/silver ratio widened as silver underperformed gold, though resilient industrial demand and a projected 2026 supply deficit continue to underpin the medium-term picture.
Resistance: $60.00, $63.00, $65.00 – Support: $56.00, $54.40, $52.00
Baseline view: cautiously neutral while $56 support holds; a weak payrolls print could revive the bid toward $60+. Base case: $54–$62.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
Closed near $63,600 (prev. week $64,900; 52-week range ~$57,700–$126,200; daily: Neutral). Bitcoin drifted lower through the week, though Thursday's $233 million net ETF inflow, led by BlackRock's IBIT, snapped a four-day outflow streak. July's monthly ETF inflows remain the smallest on record at roughly $205 million, underscoring how fragile the institutional recovery still is. The stalled CLARITY Act remains the key regulatory swing factor.
Resistance: $65,500, $68,000, $70,000 – Support: $62,000, $60,000, $57,700 (recent low)
Baseline view: neutral, contingent on payrolls-driven rate expectations and the durability of ETF inflows. Base case: $60,000–$68,000.
Ethereum (ETH/USD)
Closed near $1,875 (prev. week $1,870; 52-week range $1,388–$4,956; daily: Neutral). ETH held broadly flat, oscillating either side of $1,900 as Ethereum ETFs continued to outperform Bitcoin's on a relative basis in July. The $1,800–1,900 zone remains the key battleground, with continued institutional accumulation via BlackRock's ETHA the main medium-term driver.
Resistance: $1,935, $2,000, $2,100 – Support: $1,800, $1,700, $1,650
Baseline view: cautiously neutral-to-constructive while ETH holds above $1,800. Base case: $1,700–$1,935.
Conclusion
Friday's US Nonfarm Payrolls report is the biggest event of the week, competing with the still-unresolved Iran conflict for market attention. EUR/USD at 1.1528: base case 1.1400–1.1650. Brent at $87.93: base case $80–$96. Gold at $4,107.00: base case $3,940–$4,250. Silver at $57.99: base case $54–$62. Bitcoin at $63,600: base case $60,000–$68,000. Ethereum at $1,875: base case $1,700–$1,935.
NordFX Analytical Group
Disclaimer: These materials are not an investment recommendation or a guide for working on financial markets and are for informational purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a complete loss of deposited funds.
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