Forex and Crypto Forecast October 5–9: FOMC Minutes in Focus

A US jobs report that missed by a wide margin has pulled October rate-hike bets off the table, yet it has not tamed a bond market that is still setting the tone for every asset class. September payrolls rose by just 29,000 against a forecast of about 90,000, unemployment ticked up to 4.2%, and revisions took further jobs out of the prior two months. Odds of another Federal Reserve hike at the October 27–28 meeting, which stood near 70% a week earlier, collapsed after the report. Even so, the 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.34%, its highest level since 2002, before settling near 5.25%, and the Dollar Index climbed to 102.20, a level last seen in April 2025. That tension between a dovish repricing of the Fed and a relentless global bond sell-off defined the past week: gold and silver gave back ground as real yields rose, EUR/USD slid toward its 16-month low, and oil drifted lower on supply recovery and the G7 release of emergency stocks, while Bitcoin held its ground. The US–Iran talks and the situation around the Strait of Hormuz remain a live risk for energy prices, and the week ahead is built around the FOMC Minutes, which will show how much patience the committee has after the September hike to 3.75%–4.00%.

Key calendar, October 5–9: Sunday – OPEC+ meeting. Monday – US ISM Services PMI. Tuesday – Eurozone retail sales, US trade balance. Wednesday – FOMC Minutes (18:00 GMT), RBI decision. Thursday – ECB account of the September meeting, US jobless claims, NBP decision. Friday – China CPI, Canadian jobs report, University of Michigan preliminary sentiment. China’s National Day holiday runs through October 7.

EUR/USD

Closed at 1.1252 (prev. week 1.1391; 52-week range 1.1215–1.2079; daily: Strong Sell, weekly: Strong Sell).

The euro lost about 1.2% on the week and posted a fourth consecutive weekly decline against the dollar, ending only a few pips above its 52-week low. Higher US yields, a firm Dollar Index and widening spreads between euro-area bond markets kept the pair under pressure even as payrolls undermined the case for more Fed tightening. All major moving averages are aligned to the downside, so rallies toward the 1.13 area are more likely to meet sellers than to start a recovery.

Resistance: 1.1300 / 1.1350 / 1.1400 – Support: 1.1215 / 1.1150 / 1.1100

Baseline view: The path of least resistance stays lower while US yields remain elevated. A hawkish tone in the FOMC Minutes would push the pair to retest the 52-week low, while a clearly dovish reading and a pullback in yields could allow a corrective bounce toward 1.1350. Base case: 1.1150–1.1350.

Brent Crude Oil

Closed at $102.72 (prev. week $104.45; 52-week range $58.72–$126.41; daily: Neutral, weekly: Strong Buy).

Brent fell about 1.7% on the week and spent Friday trading between roughly $98 and $104, a wide range that reflects headline-driven trading. Supply recovery and the G7 release of emergency stocks capped the upside, while weak US jobs data added to growth concerns. The Hormuz situation and the US–Iran talks keep a geopolitical premium in the price, and the OPEC+ meeting on Sunday is the first test of the week.

Resistance: $104 / $108 / $110 – Support: $100 / $98 / $95

Baseline view: Oil remains hostage to Iran-related headlines and to the demand signal from a slowing US labour market. Dips toward $98–$100 have drawn buyers, but a decisive break below $98 would open the way to $95. Base case: $97–$108.

Gold (XAU/USD)

Closed at $4,172.10 (prev. week $4,320.50; 52-week range $3,838.05–$5,595.46; daily: Strong Sell, weekly: Sell).

Gold dropped about 3.4% on the week, its second weekly loss in a row, as the 10-year yield hit a 24-year high and real yields moved toward 2.9%. The soft payrolls figure and the fall in October hike odds limited the damage, and safe-haven demand tied to the global bond sell-off helped gold stabilise midweek. Price now trades below its 20-, 50- and 100-day averages, which sit in the $4,280–$4,330 area, and sellers keep the upper hand.

Resistance: $4,280 / $4,330 / $4,400 – Support: $4,100 / $4,000 / $3,970

Baseline view: The bias is bearish while real yields keep rising, with the $4,100 level the first line of defence and the $3,970–$4,000 zone the key area below it. Only a close above the $4,280–$4,330 moving-average cluster would shift the picture. Base case: $4,050–$4,330.

Silver (XAG/USD)

Closed at $60.71 (prev. week $64.71; 52-week range $45.54–$121.67; daily: Strong Sell, weekly: Strong Sell).

Silver was the weakest instrument on the list, losing about 6.2% on the week. As usual, it moved with gold but with greater force, and the $60 area, tested again on Friday, is now the line that matters. The 200-day average near $62.90 stands above the market as the first hurdle for any rebound.

Resistance: $62.90 / $64.70 / $66.00 – Support: $60.00 / $58.00 / $56.00

Baseline view: Silver is likely to follow gold and the yield curve. A sustained break below $60 would expose the $58 area, while a recovery above $62.90 would take the pressure off and bring $64.70 back into view. Base case: $57.50–$64.50.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD)

Closed at $84,650 (prev. week $83,888; 52-week range $57,877–$126,110; daily: Strong Buy, weekly: Strong Buy).

Bitcoin was the only instrument on the list to finish higher, gaining about 0.9% and holding above $84,000 through a week of rising yields. It traded between roughly $83,700 and $87,200 on Friday as the dovish payrolls reaction faded, which leaves the $87,000–$87,500 zone as near-term resistance. October has opened with firm sentiment, but price remains sensitive to the bond market.

Resistance: $87,000 / $88,000 / $90,000 – Support: $82,000 / $80,000 / $78,000

Baseline view: The constructive structure holds while $82,000 is defended. A move through $87,500 would reopen the $90,000 area, while a loss of $80,000 would suggest the recent rally has run its course. Base case: $80,000–$88,000.

Ethereum (ETH/USD)

Closed at $2,676.18 (prev. week $2,685; 52-week range $1,507.05–$4,752.57; daily: Strong Buy, weekly: Strong Buy).

Ethereum ended almost unchanged, down about 0.3%, after touching $2,777 on Friday and giving back most of the gain. It continues to lag Bitcoin in strength, and the $2,780–$2,900 area is the barrier for a more convincing move higher. Friday’s low near $2,650 is the first support, with $2,600 below it.

Resistance: $2,780 / $2,900 / $3,000 – Support: $2,600 / $2,500 / $2,430

Baseline view: Ethereum is likely to trade in step with Bitcoin and risk appetite. Holding $2,600 keeps the base intact, while a break below $2,500 would put the $2,430 level back in play. Base case: $2,450–$2,900.

Conclusion

The week ahead turns on whether the FOMC Minutes on Wednesday confirm the dovish shift implied by the 29,000 payrolls print, or whether they stress that the Fed is still prepared to tighten if inflation fails to ease. The ISM Services PMI on Monday and the Friday data from China, Canada and the University of Michigan add to the picture, while the OPEC+ decision and the US–Iran talks drive energy risk. EUR/USD closed at 1.1252 with a base case of 1.1150–1.1350; Brent at $102.72 with $97–$108; gold at $4,172.10 with $4,050–$4,330; silver at $60.71 with $57.50–$64.50; Bitcoin at $84,650 with $80,000–$88,000; and Ethereum at $2,676.18 with $2,450–$2,900. A further rise in Treasury yields is the main risk for metals, the euro and crypto alike.

NordFX Analytical Group

Risk disclaimer: This material is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Trading forex, CFDs and cryptocurrencies involves a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You may lose some or all of your invested capital; trade only with funds you can afford to lose.

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Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for October 5–9, 2026