Markets head into the new week with US Treasury yields near 5.24% (after touching 5.345% mid-week), a firm dollar (DXY about 102.03) and oil still hostage to Middle East headlines. The minutes of the September FOMC meeting showed that most officials see another rate hike by year-end, which keeps pressure on risk assets. The key event ahead is US CPI for September, due on Wednesday, October 14, two weeks before the October 27–28 FOMC meeting. US markets are closed on Monday for Columbus Day, so liquidity may be thin at the start of the week.
Friday brought a rebound in metals, while crypto ended the week lower. Below are our baseline views for the main assets.
Asset | Close, Oct 9 | Prev. week | Weekly change | Base case, Oct 12–16 |
EUR/USD | 1.1202 | 1.1252 | –0.4% | 1.1120–1.1280 |
Brent | $104.42 | $102.72 | +1.7% | $99–108 |
Gold | $4,220.30 | $4,172.10 | +1.2% | $4,120–4,330 |
Silver | $61.11 | $60.71 | +0.7% | $58.5–64.0 |
Bitcoin | $82,400 | $84,650 | –2.7% | $78,500–87,000 |
Ethereum | $2,477 | $2,676 | –7.4% | $2,350–2,680 |
EUR/USD
The pair closed the week at 1.1202, down about 0.4%, trading in a 1.1161–1.1277 range and staying close to its 52-week low of 1.1161. Technical indicators on daily and weekly timeframes point to Strong Sell. A hot US CPI print would likely push the pair below 1.1161 and open the way to 1.1100; a softer reading may trigger a short-covering bounce.
Base case: 1.1120–1.1280, with a bearish bias while the pair stays below 1.1277.
Resistance: 1.1277 and 1.1350.
Support: 1.1161 (52-week low) and 1.1100.
Brent
Brent rose about 1.7% to $104.42, moving between roughly $96.55 and $105.92 over the week. Oil eased on Tuesday after President Trump ruled out an attack on Iran before the midterm elections, but Houthi strikes on Riyadh airport and the disruption around the Strait of Hormuz keep the risk premium high. Daily and weekly indicators show Strong Buy.
Base case: $99–108, with sharp swings on geopolitical news.
Resistance: $105.92 and $110.
Support: $100 and $96.5.
Gold
Gold finished at $4,220.30, up about 1.2% on the week, after bouncing from a low near $4,091 on October 7. Spot XAU/USD stood at $4,194.24. High yields and a strong dollar remain the main headwinds, and indicators on both daily and weekly charts still read Strong Sell. US CPI on Wednesday is the main catalyst.
Base case: $4,120–4,330, with consolidation near current levels most likely.
Resistance: $4,233 and $4,350.
Support: $4,091 and $4,000.
Silver
Silver added about 0.7% to $61.11, recovering from a weekly low near $58.73 reached on October 8. The metal remains far below its 52-week high of $121.67 and follows gold and the dollar closely. Daily and weekly indicators show Strong Sell.
Base case: $58.5–64.0, with a moderately cautious bias.
Resistance: $62.5 and $65.
Support: $58.7 and $56.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin lost about 2.7% over the week and trades near $82,400, after falling to about $80,434 on October 8 from a weekly high near $87,129. The daily indicator reads Sell, while the weekly one still shows Strong Buy, which reflects a pullback inside a broader uptrend. Higher yields limit demand for risk assets.
Base case: $78,500–87,000, with a neutral-to-cautious tone.
Resistance: $87,100 and $90,000.
Support: $80,400 and $77,000.
Ethereum
Ethereum was the weakest asset on our list, falling about 7.4% to roughly $2,477, with a weekly low of $2,408.36. The daily indicator signals Strong Sell, the weekly one Strong Buy. A move back above $2,676 is needed to cancel the bearish scenario.
Base case: $2,350–2,680, with downside risk if Bitcoin loses $80,000.
Resistance: $2,676 and $2,800.
Support: $2,408 and $2,300.
Key events of the week
Monday, October 12: US markets closed (Columbus Day).
Wednesday, October 14: US CPI for September.
Thursday, October 15: US PPI and import/export prices; retail sales are due on October 15 or 16.
NordFX Analytical Group
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