The week of May 4–8 delivered high volatility across all instruments. The dominant theme was the US–Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz crisis, punctuated by a stronger-than-expected April Nonfarm Payrolls print (115K vs. 62K forecast) on Friday. Markets also processed Trump’s threat of additional tariffs on the EU by July 4, a dip in ISM Services PMI to 53.6, and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment falling to 48.2. The operative macro framework heading into the new week: the Fed firmly on hold at 3.50–3.75%, the ECB pivoting toward a potential June rate hike (50 bps now priced for year-end, 75% probability of June move), and a Strait of Hormuz that remained closed despite a US peace memorandum sent through Pakistani mediators — Tehran’s response is expected early in the coming week. The week of May 11–15 carries a high-impact macro calendar: US April CPI (Tuesday, May 12), PPI (Wednesday, May 13), Retail Sales (Thursday, May 14), IEA STEO (Tuesday), and ECB April meeting minutes. The CPI print is the central event for all six instruments.
Closing prices as of Friday, May 8, 2026:
EUR/USD – 1.1748 | Brent Crude Oil Futures – $101.29 | Gold Futures (GC) – $4,730.70 | Silver Futures (SI) – $80.865 | Bitcoin (BTC/USD) – $80,165 | Ethereum (ETH/USD) – $2,284.70
EUR/USD
EUR/USD closed at 1.1748, a +0.23% gain on the week (from 1.1721). The pair spent the week probing the 1.1800 barrier without closing above it, supported by ECB hawkishness and dollar weakness on Iran peace hopes, while Trump’s EU tariff threat and a strong NFP capped upside. Price holds comfortably above the 20-day SMA (~1.1737) and 100-day SMA (~1.1709), with the 200-day SMA at 1.1682 as the structural floor. ECB tightening expectations (50 bps priced by year-end, 75% June hike probability) are the key medium-term EUR tailwind. Key catalysts: US April CPI (Tuesday). Hot CPI (≥3.5% YoY) → USD strengthens, pushes EUR/USD toward 1.1650–1.1620. Soft CPI (≤3.0%) → revives rate-cut bets, targets 1.1800–1.1850. Iran’s peace response is the wildcard: a positive reply → 1.1850–1.1900; renewed escalation reverses both. Resistance: 1.1800, 1.1840, 1.1900. Support: 1.1720, 1.1682, 1.1640.
Baseline view: Mildly bullish above 1.1720. ECB-vs-Fed rate differential provides structural support. The 1.1800 ceiling remains the defining hurdle; a daily close above it opens 1.1840–1.1900. US CPI and Iran’s reply are the binary catalysts. Base case: 1.1720–1.1800 range until one of those triggers fires.
Brent Crude Oil
Brent settled at $101.29, posting its first weekly decline (−6.4%) since the Strait of Hormuz closed in late February (from $108.17). The week saw extreme intraday swings: a high of $108.80 on Monday (Operation Project Freedom escalation) collapsing to $96.80 intraday on Wednesday (Axios reported the US was near a 14-point peace MOU with Iran), before recovering to $101.29. The IEA estimates the conflict is removing ~14 million barrels per day from global supply. Dated Brent (physical delivery) is trading above $130/bbl, reflecting severe physical market stress that futures understate. Key catalysts: Iran’s response to the US peace MOU (expected imminently). Positive reply → rapid $10–18 move toward $85–90 (though physical tightness and infrastructure damage would moderate the descent). Rejection/escalation → re-test of $108–$114. Ambiguous response (base case) → range-bound $98–$108. Also watch IEA STEO (Tuesday) and weekly EIA inventories (Wednesday). Resistance: $105, $108, $114. Support: $98, $95, $90.
Baseline view: Neutral with extreme binary uncertainty. Direction is entirely set by diplomacy. Base case: $98–$108 range as talks continue without a concluded deal. A confirmed peace deal is the only catalyst capable of a rapid trip to $85–90; renewed escalation re-targets $114.
Gold (XAU/USD)
Gold Futures (GC) closed at $4,730.70 (prev close $4,710.90; day range $4,682.50–$4,759.21), recording a weekly gain of ~1.5% from $4,661.40 – the first weekly advance in three weeks. Price reclaimed the $4,700 psychological level and is now testing the 40-period SMA on the H1 chart, with the Daily MACD showing early bullish convergence. The 52-week range stands at $3,123–$5,627. Gold’s core paradox persists: the Hormuz crisis drives safe-haven demand and oil-driven inflation, which delays rate cuts and pressures non-yielding gold. The Fed is 94.9% likely to stay on hold in June (CME FedWatch). Key catalysts: US April CPI (Tuesday). Hot CPI → presses toward $4,650–$4,600. Soft CPI → revives cut expectations, targets $4,800–$4,840. PPI (Wednesday) and Retail Sales (Thursday) provide supplementary signals. A Hormuz deal is short-term gold-negative (oil/inflation fall, USD firms) but medium-term positive (rate-cut path reopens). Resistance: $4,760, $4,800, $4,840. Support: $4,700, $4,650, $4,600.
Baseline view: Neutral to mildly bullish above $4,700. Recovery this week is technically constructive; the $4,700 floor held and the Daily MACD is improving. A close above $4,760 targets $4,800–$4,840 (medium-term consensus: Goldman Sachs $5,400, JPMorgan $5,900 year-end). Break below $4,650 re-opens $4,600–$4,560.
Silver (XAG/USD)
Silver Futures (SI) closed at $80.865, a weekly gain of +5.4% from $76.71 — the strongest weekly performance of the six instruments covered. Silver surged over 6% on Wednesday alone on Iran peace optimism. Price is at its highest since mid-April. The 200-day SMA (~$75.23) has flipped to support; the 50-day SMA (~$82.67) is now the overhead target. Investing.com’s technical summary rates XAG/USD a "Strong Buy" on all key timeframes, with the $79.20 pivot as the key rotational support. Key catalysts: US CPI (Tuesday). Soft CPI + Hormuz progress → targets the 50-day SMA at $82.67 and above. Hot CPI + escalation → exposes $79.20–$77.00. Structural floor: AI-linked industrial demand (Big Tech $715B capex, +91% YoY) sustains semiconductor and data-centre silver demand. Resistance: $82.00, $84.00, $86.00. Support: $79.20, $77.00, $75.00.
Baseline view: Bullish above $79.20. The week’s strong recovery, Strong Buy technical rating on Investing.com, and 200-day SMA now acting as support confirm the bullish tilt. Next target: 50-day SMA at $82.67. A hot CPI or escalation that breaks $79.20 would invalidate the setup.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
Bitcoin was trading at $80,165 at the 8:06 PM UTC update on May 8, with the weekly price action running from a Monday open of $76,960 to a weekly high of $82,000 (May 6 — highest since January), before pulling back into the close. The weekly gain vs. prior Friday’s $77,400 is +3.6%. The 200-day EMA at $82,228 capped price twice and remains the defining technical breakout level. On-chain: exchange reserves at a 7-year low; BlackRock’s IBIT holds ~812,000 BTC (~$62B); cumulative ETF inflows $58.5B. Whale wallets net-purchased an estimated 270,000 BTC over 30 days — the largest monthly accumulation since 2013. Key catalysts: US CPI (Tuesday) — soft reading supports risk assets broadly. The CLARITY Act (crypto regulatory framework) advancing in Congress is a medium-term positive. Iran peace deal = risk-on boost for BTC. A confirmed daily close above $82,228 triggers the structural trend reversal and opens $84,000–$86,000. Resistance: $82,228 (200-day EMA), $84,000, $86,000. Support: $80,000, $78,500, $76,960.
Baseline view: Bullish above $80,000. Record-low exchange supply, historic whale accumulation, and $58.5B in ETF inflows represent the strongest structural bid since late 2024. The 200-day EMA at $82,228 is the decisive breakout level; a confirmed close above it opens $84,000–$86,000. Until cleared, expect $78,500–$82,228 oscillation.
Ethereum (ETH/USD)
Ethereum closed at $2,284.70 (per Investing.com prev close; day range $2,304–$2,318), essentially flat vs. the prior Friday’s $2,284 close, masking a volatile week: ETH surged to ~$2,412 (highest since April 27) on Wednesday peace optimism before selling off to the close. The 50-day EMA (~$2,361) and 200-day MA (~$2,367) have converged into a tight $6-wide resistance cluster that has capped every ETH rally for weeks. Two additional headwinds this week: a $5.9M exploit on TrustedVolumes and $30.8M in ETH frozen (North Korean hackers on Arbitrum) — neither systemic, but both weighed on ETH vs. BTC. Key catalysts: US CPI (Tuesday). Soft CPI → ETH back toward $2,361–$2,367 resistance; a close above that level opens $2,412–$2,460. Hot CPI → exposes $2,211 (50-day EMA, critical May floor flagged by multiple analysts); a close below $2,211 opens $2,108 and $2,000. ETH exhibits higher beta than BTC in both directions. Resistance: $2,361, $2,367 (MA cluster), $2,412, $2,460. Support: $2,250, $2,211, $2,108.
Baseline view: Neutral with a slight positive tilt above $2,250. ETH is trapped between $2,250–$2,250 support and the $2,361–$2,367 MA resistance cluster. Soft CPI is the most plausible trigger to break above it; success targets $2,412–$2,460. Hormuz peace deal = broad risk-on boost. Must hold $2,211 on any dip to preserve May structure.
Conclusion
The week of May 11–15 is framed by two overriding variables: US April CPI (Tuesday) and Iran’s reply to the US peace memorandum (expected imminently). Together, these two events will determine whether the inflation-driven rate narrative eases or tightens, and whether the Hormuz supply shock begins to unwind or intensify. CPI is the central trigger for all six instruments: soft data revives rate-cut expectations (EUR/USD higher, gold higher, silver higher, crypto higher, oil more moderate); hot data reinforces Fed-on-hold (USD stronger, headwinds for precious metals and crypto). The Hormuz outcome is the primary driver for Brent, with significant spillover into gold, silver, and risk assets. EUR/USD needs a CPI break and EU tariff relief to clear 1.1800 decisively. Brent faces its most significant diplomatic inflection point since the war began. Gold has reclaimed $4,700 and eyes $4,760–$4,840 on a soft CPI. Silver’s strong week (+5.4%) has set a bullish posture with the 50-day SMA ($82.67) as the next target. Bitcoin’s record-low exchange supply and whale accumulation keep the structural bid intact, with $82,228 as the decisive breakout level. Ethereum will amplify whichever way risk sentiment breaks, with the $2,361–2,367 MA cluster and $2,211 as the defining boundaries.
NordFX Analytical Group
Disclaimer: These materials are not an investment recommendation or a guide for working on financial markets and are for informational purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a complete loss of deposited funds.
Kembali Kembali
