Market Overview
The week was dominated by the Federal Reserve’s first rate hike since 2023. The FOMC raised rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% on Wednesday in a unanimous 12–0 vote, and the dot plot signals another hike this year, with markets pricing roughly a 51% chance of a move on October 28. Fed Chair Warsh said inflation is “too high,” lifting the dollar index to seven-week highs near 100.50. Brent peaked at $108.75 after drone strikes on Saudi Arabia’s East–West pipeline, then retreated as repairs progressed. Falling yields and oil triggered a sharp Friday relief rally in metals and crypto, with Bitcoin reclaiming $80,000.
Closing Prices, Friday, September 18, 2026:
- EUR/USD: 1.1486
- Brent Crude: $103.19
- Gold (XAU/USD): $4,415.90
- Silver (XAG/USD): $66.79
- Bitcoin: $80,882
- Ethereum: $2,612
EUR/USD
Status: Closed at 1.1486 (previous week 1.1600; 52-week range 1.1325–1.2079)
The euro lost almost 1% as the Fed’s hike and hawkish guidance widened the rate gap in the dollar’s favor. ECB President Lagarde’s comment that second-round effects are not yet visible weighed further, and the pair hit a weekly low at 1.1453 before stabilizing on Friday.
Resistance Levels: 1.1500, 1.1560, 1.1600
Support Levels: 1.1455, 1.1400, 1.1325
Baseline View: Bearish while the pair stays below 1.1560. A break under 1.1455 favors a slide toward 1.1400 and the 52-week low; a soft PCE print or weak flash PMIs could open a bounce toward 1.1600. Base case range: 1.1325–1.1600.
Brent Crude Oil
Status: Closed at $103.19 (previous week $104.61; 52-week range $58.72–$126.41)
Brent spiked to $108.75 on Tuesday after drone strikes on Saudi Arabia’s East–West pipeline, then fell as Riyadh targeted half capacity within days and full restoration in about six weeks. The week closed roughly 1% lower, although analysts warn that repairs could take longer than stated.
Resistance Levels: $105.00, $108.75, $110.00
Support Levels: $101.50, $100.00, $97.00
Baseline View: Consolidation with a downside tilt while repairs progress. Delays or fresh attacks would restore the risk premium toward $110, while a full return of Saudi supply risks a move toward $97–$100. Base case range: $97–$110.
Gold (XAU/USD)
Status: Closed at $4,415.90 (previous week $4,408.90; 52-week range $3,705.00–$5,626.80)
Gold dipped toward $4,270 on Wednesday after the Fed’s hike, then recovered as Treasury yields and oil eased, finishing at its highest close of the week. Central bank demand remains supportive, with the People’s Bank of China adding reserves for a 22nd consecutive month.
Resistance Levels: $4,440, $4,500, $4,550
Support Levels: $4,350, $4,300, $4,270
Baseline View: Constructive but contested. The prospect of an October hike caps rallies, while falling yields and central bank buying provide support. A hot PCE print risks a retest of $4,270; a soft reading opens $4,500. Base case range: $4,270–$4,550.
Silver (XAG/USD)
Status: Closed at $66.79 (previous week $65.19; 52-week range $43.89–$121.79)
Silver dropped to $62.75 on Wednesday, then gained over 4% across the last three sessions to break out of the $63–$65 range, outperforming gold. The metal ended the week about 2.5% higher.
Resistance Levels: $67.90, $68.60, $71.00
Support Levels: $65.00, $62.75, $60.00
Baseline View: Momentum has turned positive after the breakout, but a close above $68.60 is needed to confirm a broader recovery. Losing $65.00 would put $62.75 back in play. Base case range: $60.00–$71.00.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
Status: Closed at $80,882 (previous week $77,221; 52-week range $57,877–$126,110)
Bitcoin fell to $75,000 on Tuesday as ETF outflows and a blocked CLARITY Act vote weighed, then surged almost 6% on Friday, reclaiming $80,000 on lower oil, the SEC’s tokenized-securities exemption, a CFTC rule proposal sent to the White House, and short liquidations. Spot ETFs returned to inflows of $159 million on Thursday.
Resistance Levels: $82,000, $84,000, $86,000
Support Levels: $80,000, $78,000, $75,000
Baseline View: Bullish bias while above $80,000, though part of the rally reflects a short squeeze and needs sustained ETF inflows to hold. A close below $78,000 would signal a failed breakout toward $75,000; a break above $82,000 opens $86,000. Base case range: $75,000–$86,000.
Ethereum (ETH/USD)
Status: Closed at $2,612 (previous week $2,516; 52-week range $1,507–$4,753)
Ether fell almost 5% on Tuesday to $2,360, then surged nearly 7% on Friday alongside Bitcoin. Spot Ether ETFs recorded about $405 million of outflows on September 15–17, so the rally lacks institutional confirmation.
Resistance Levels: $2,650, $2,750, $2,800
Support Levels: $2,515, $2,400, $2,300
Baseline View: Improved but unconfirmed. Holding above $2,515 targets $2,650–$2,800, while persistent ETF outflows risk a return to $2,400. Base case range: $2,300–$2,800.
Key Calendar Events (September 21–25)
- Monday: People’s Bank of China Loan Prime Rate (expected unchanged), Fed speakers including Goolsbee
- Tuesday: Fed speakers including Jefferson and Williams, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
- Wednesday: Flash PMIs for Germany, the Eurozone, the UK and the US
- Thursday: Swiss National Bank decision (expected hold at 0.00%), Trump–Xi meeting at the White House, US jobless claims
- Friday: US August PCE inflation (headline expected near 2.7%, core near 2.9%), Durable Goods Orders, University of Michigan sentiment
Unscheduled Risk: Saudi pipeline repairs and Red Sea/Hormuz security remain the primary wildcards.
Conclusion
August PCE inflation on Friday will help decide whether the Fed hikes again on October 28 or waits until December, making it the key test for the dollar after its post-FOMC strength. Wednesday’s flash PMIs, the SNB decision and the Trump–Xi meeting complete a busy calendar, while Saudi pipeline restoration remains the main driver for Brent. The crypto rebound will need sustained ETF inflows to prove durable.
Summary Price Targets:
- EUR/USD at 1.1486: base case 1.1325–1.1600
- Brent at $103.19: base case $97–$110
- Gold at $4,415.90: base case $4,270–$4,550
- Silver at $66.79: base case $60.00–$71.00
- Bitcoin at $80,882: base case $75,000–$86,000
- Ethereum at $2,612: base case $2,300–$2,800
Disclaimer: These materials are not an investment recommendation or guide for working on financial markets and are for informational purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to complete loss of deposited funds.
NordFX Analytical Group
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