🌍 Iran Risk and Fed Hike Odds Dominate
Oil is the story: Brent jumped to ~$106.1–106.5 (+1.5–2.1%) after President Trump rejected Iran's proposal to de-escalate around the Strait of Hormuz, with Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure adding to supply fears. That's pushing Treasury yields higher (30-year near 5.52%, up 27bp this month) on top of rising odds (~70%) of another Fed hike on October 28 following last week's 25bp move. Gold is taking the hit, breaking below $4,200.
🌏 Asia Session
🇯🇵 Nikkei 225 – opened higher, gains pared back to little changed
🇰🇷 KOSPI – down ~2.4%, tech-led selling
🇨🇳 Shanghai Composite – down 1.4%, now off more than 5% for September
🇭🇰 Asia-Pacific/Hang Seng – broader regional gauge down ~0.6%
🗾 BoJ policy meeting minutes released overnight
💱 Key Levels
XAU/USD (Gold) – $4,197, down 2.04% today, below the $4,200 handle
Brent – ~$106, up on Middle East risk premium
EUR/USD – 1.1386, holding just under Friday's close as the dollar firms
📅 Today's Calendar (GMT+3)
02:50 🇯🇵 BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
13:00 🇬🇧 MPC Member Ramsden speaks
15:15 🇺🇸 FOMC Member Bowman speaks
16:30 🇪🇺 ECB President Lagarde speaks
17:30 🇺🇸 Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index
20:25 🇺🇸 FOMC Member Cook speaks
20:30 🇺🇸 FOMC Member Barkin speaks
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