The week of August 17–21 brought a broad risk-on rally as the US Treasury's expanded debt-buyback plan pulled yields and the dollar sharply lower. Gold and silver surged to multi-month highs on fiscal-sustainability concerns, Brent extended its Iran-driven advance past $93, and crypto staged its strongest weekly rally in months on the back of renewed Treasury liquidity and President Trump's push for the CLARITY Act.
Closing prices, Friday, August 21, 2026: EUR/USD – 1.1677 | Brent Crude – $93.93 | Gold (XAU/USD) – $4,661.60 | Silver (XAG/USD) – $69.01 | Bitcoin – $77,300 | Ethereum – $2,520
Key calendar, August 24-28: Mon – details of new US sanctions on Iran expected. Tue – US Consumer Confidence, RBA Minutes. Wed – Australian CPI, US Q2 GDP (2nd estimate), Nvidia earnings. Thu – Jackson Hole Symposium opens, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh keynote. Fri – US Personal Income/Spending and PCE Price Index. The Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz situation remain the key unscheduled risk.
EUR/USD
Closed at 1.1677 (prev. week 1.1570; 52-week range 1.1325–1.2079; daily: Buy). The euro held near a three-month high as the dollar stayed on the defensive after the Treasury's buyback announcement pulled yields lower. Eurozone business activity improved in August, led by German manufacturing, while markets price a further ECB hike in September as close to fully priced. Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole keynote and Friday's US PCE print are the key swing factors.
Resistance: 1.1710, 1.1750, 1.1800 – Support: 1.1630, 1.1580, 1.1500
Baseline view: cautiously bullish while the dollar stays pressured by fiscal concerns and the Fed's path remains unsettled. Base case: 1.1500–1.1800.
Brent Crude Oil
Closed at $93.93 (prev. week $88.60; 52-week range $58.72–$126.41; daily: Strong Buy). Brent posted a second straight weekly gain of around 6% as the Hormuz standoff persisted and Washington signalled a sweeping new round of Iran sanctions, with details due Monday. Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure added further supply-side pressure. Escalation risk continues to skew the balance higher.
Resistance: $95.00, $98.00, $100.00 – Support: $90.00, $87.00, $85.00
Baseline view: bullish while the Hormuz standoff and Iran sanctions escalation persist. Base case: $85–$100.
Gold (XAU/USD)
Closed at $4,661.60 (prev. week $4,432.00; 52-week range $3,311.46–$5,595.46; daily: Buy, weekly: Buy). Gold jumped over 5% on the week to its highest level since May as the Treasury's buyback plan revived fiscal-sustainability concerns and pushed yields and the dollar lower. Record central-bank buying continues to underpin the medium-term trend. Warsh's Jackson Hole remarks and Friday's PCE data are the key swing factors ahead.
Resistance: $4,700, $4,750, $4,800 – Support: $4,580, $4,500, $4,400
Baseline view: constructive on fiscal and debasement concerns, but stretched after a fast run-up and vulnerable to a hawkish Jackson Hole surprise. Base case: $4,400–$4,800.
Silver (XAG/USD)
Closed at $69.01 (prev. week $64.83; 52-week range $36.96–$121.67; daily: Strong Buy). Silver rose over 6% on the week, tracking gold's fiscal-driven advance for a third consecutive weekly gain. The gold/silver ratio compressed toward 67, signalling silver is fully participating in the rally rather than lagging. Robust industrial demand and a projected 2026 supply deficit remain medium-term supports.
Resistance: $71.00, $73.50, $76.00 – Support: $67.00, $64.50, $62.00
Baseline view: bullish while the debasement trade and deficit narrative hold, though near-term conditions are overbought. Base case: $62.00–$76.00.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
Closed near $77,300 (prev. week $62,700; 52-week range $57,877–$126,110; daily: Strong Buy). Bitcoin surged around 23% on the week, its best run in months, as the Treasury's liquidity-boosting buyback plan, President Trump's push for the CLARITY Act, and a proposed SEC crypto-regulation framework revived risk appetite. Lower yields freed up investor cash for volatile assets broadly.
Resistance: $80,000, $85,000, $90,000 – Support: $73,000, $70,000, $65,000
Baseline view: bullish while risk appetite and crypto-legislation optimism persist, contingent on the Jackson Hole rate signal. Base case: $65,000–$90,000.
Ethereum (ETH/USD)
Closed near $2,520 (prev. week $1,870; 52-week range $1,388–$4,956; daily: Strong Buy). ETH outperformed Bitcoin, rallying around 35% on the week on the same Treasury-liquidity and regulatory-clarity tailwinds, with continued institutional inflows via spot ETH ETFs providing an added bid. The pair decisively cleared its prior $1,925–2,050 resistance zone.
Resistance: $2,600, $2,750, $2,900 – Support: $2,300, $2,150, $2,000
Baseline view: bullish while institutional inflows and CLARITY Act momentum continue, though a pullback to the broken resistance zone would be healthy. Base case: $2,000–$2,900.
Conclusion
Thursday's Jackson Hole keynote from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and Friday's PCE inflation data are the biggest events of the week, alongside Wednesday's US GDP revision and Nvidia earnings; the Iran conflict and fresh US sanctions due Monday remain the main unscheduled risk. EUR/USD at 1.1677: base case 1.1500–1.1800. Brent at $93.93: base case $85–$100. Gold at $4,661.60: base case $4,400–$4,800. Silver at $69.01: base case $62.00–$76.00. Bitcoin at $77,300: base case $65,000–$90,000. Ethereum at $2,520: base case $2,000–$2,900.
NordFX Analytical Group
Disclaimer: These materials are not an investment recommendation or a guide for working on financial markets and are for informational purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a complete loss of deposited funds.
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