Markets head into the new week with the dollar near 19-month highs and rate-hike pricing at the center of every asset class. October US CPI came in at 0.4% against a 0.3% forecast, with core at 0.3%, keeping a December Fed hike firmly in play after the Fed held at 3.75–4.00% on October 28 with two dissenters favoring a hike. Friday’s PPI, at 0.3% against 0.4% expected, offered only modest relief. Gold fell to near one-year lows, silver slid below $49, Brent swung between roughly $89 and $98 on US–Iran and Hormuz headlines, and a leadership shake-up at Nvidia weighed on tech and crypto. Bitcoin fell below $70,000 for the first time since August, Ethereum dropped below $2,000, and EUR/USD is trading near its 52-week low. US retail sales and Nvidia earnings on Tuesday, then the FOMC minutes on Wednesday, are the next tests.
Closing prices, Friday, November 13 (Bitcoin and Ethereum as of Saturday morning): EUR/USD – 1.1022 | Brent – $96.13 | Gold – $3,887.60 | Silver – $48.65 | Bitcoin – $67,234 | Ethereum – $1,898.15
Key calendar, November 16–20: Mon 16 – China activity data, Canada CPI, Fed Chair Warsh and Williams speak; Tue 17 – US retail sales (October), Nvidia earnings; Wed 18 – FOMC minutes, UK CPI (October); Thu 19 – Philly Fed index, Japan CPI; Fri 20 – UK retail sales, Moody’s UK review, US consumer sentiment (final).
Instrument | Close, Nov 13 | Prev. week | Weekly change | Base case |
EUR/USD | 1.1022 | 1.1144 | −1.1% | 1.0950–1.1130 |
Brent | $96.13 | $98.32 | −2.2% | $89–$100 |
Gold | $3,887.60 | $4,074.90 | −4.6% | $3,750–$4,000 |
Silver | $48.65 | $51.94 | −6.3% | $46.00–$51.50 |
Bitcoin | $67,234 | $75,847 | −11.4% | $62,000–$72,000 |
Ethereum | $1,898.15 | $2,240.78 | −15.3% | $1,700–$2,100 |
EUR/USD
Closed at 1.1022 (prev. week 1.1144). The euro lost 1.1% on the week and fell for four straight sessions from Monday’s 1.1224 close, touching 1.1020 on Friday and ending near its 52-week low. Hot US CPI and December hike pricing kept the dollar bid, and the softer PPI print did not give the euro a lasting lift.
Resistance: 1.1055 / 1.1090 / 1.1164 – Support: 1.1000 / 1.0950 / 1.0900
Baseline view: the bias stays negative while Fed hike pricing holds, with retail sales on Tuesday and the FOMC minutes on Wednesday the main swing factors. A daily close below 1.1000 would open 1.0950 and 1.0900, while a recovery above 1.1055 would ease the pressure. Base case: 1.0950–1.1130.
Brent Crude Oil
Closed at $96.13 (prev. week $98.32). Brent lost 2.2% on the week, but the path was volatile: a 5.9% drop on Monday to $92.57 on US–Iran diplomacy hopes, a low of $89.16 on Tuesday, then a rebound of 3.3% on Thursday as the US blockade and Hormuz risks stayed in focus. Friday added 0.3%.
Resistance: $97.13 / $98.43 / $100 – Support: $92.50 / $89.16 / $85
Baseline view: oil stays headline-driven inside the $90–$98 zone. A break above $98.43 would retarget $100, while a loss of $92.50 would put the $89.16 low back in view. Base case: $89–$100.
Gold (XAU/USD)
Closed at $3,887.60 (prev. week $4,074.90). Gold lost 4.6% on the week after a 2.1% drop on Tuesday following the hot CPI print and a 2.9% fall on Thursday, when it touched $3,857, near yearly lows. A 10-year US yield around 5.1% and a strong dollar continue to weigh on the metal. Friday ended broadly flat.
Resistance: $3,927 / $4,000 / $4,030 – Support: $3,857 / $3,800 / $3,750
Baseline view: gold remains under pressure while hike expectations are intact. Holding $3,857 is the first test, and a break lower would open $3,800 and $3,750. A move back above $4,000 would be needed to signal stabilization. Base case: $3,750–$4,000.
Silver (XAG/USD)
Closed at $48.65 (prev. week $51.94). Silver lost 6.3% on the week, peaking at $53.78 on Tuesday before sliding 2.8% on Friday, with a Friday low of $48.41.
Resistance: $50.00 / $52.00 / $53.50 – Support: $48.41 / $47.50 / $46.00
Baseline view: silver follows gold with a higher beta, so moves in either direction are likely to be sharper. Holding $48.41 keeps a bounce toward $50 possible, while a close below it opens $47.50 and $46.00. Base case: $46.00–$51.50.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
Trading at $67,234 on Saturday morning (prev. week $75,847). Bitcoin lost 11.4% on the week, including a 4.4% drop on Friday that took it below $70,000 for the first time since August. Weakness in AI-linked equities and rising hike expectations weighed on risk appetite, and weekend trading dipped to about $66,500.
Resistance: $70,000 / $71,500 / $74,000 – Support: $66,500 / $65,000 / $62,000
Baseline view: $70,000 has turned from support into resistance. Failure to reclaim it keeps $66,500 and $65,000 in play, while a recovery above $71,500 would ease the pressure. Equities, Nvidia earnings and fund flows are the main drivers. Base case: $62,000–$72,000.
Ethereum (ETH/USD)
Trading at $1,898.15 on Saturday morning (prev. week $2,240.78). Ether lost 15.3% on the week, including a 4.5% drop on Friday, and fell below $2,000. As the higher-beta crypto asset, it has been extending Bitcoin’s moves.
Resistance: $2,000 / $2,056 / $2,135 – Support: $1,880 / $1,800 / $1,700
Baseline view: $2,000 is the level to reclaim. Support at $1,880 is the first test, and a break would open $1,800 and $1,700. Base case: $1,700–$2,100.
Conclusion
The week ahead turns on whether US data and Fed communication confirm or soften December hike pricing, with retail sales and Nvidia earnings on Tuesday and the FOMC minutes on Wednesday as the key checkpoints. Oil remains the main geopolitical gauge, and crypto is tied closely to equities and risk appetite. Closing prices on Friday, November 13 (Bitcoin and Ethereum as of Saturday morning), and base cases: EUR/USD 1.1022 (1.0950–1.1130); Brent $96.13 ($89–$100); Gold $3,887.60 ($3,750–$4,000); Silver $48.65 ($46.00–$51.50); Bitcoin $67,234 ($62,000–$72,000); Ethereum $1,898.15 ($1,700–$2,100).
NordFX Analytical Group
Risk disclaimer: This material is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Trading forex, CFDs and cryptocurrencies involves a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You may lose some or all of your invested capital; trade only with funds you can afford to lose.
返回 返回
