The week of April 27 – May 1 delivered on its macro promise. The FOMC held rates steady at 3.50–3.75% on April 29–30, but the meeting was hawkish in tone: four officials dissented, three of them opposing any signal of eventual rate cuts – the deepest internal split since October 1992. Eurozone Q1 GDP came in at a meagre 0.1%, and Eurozone CPI jumped to 3.0% in April, its highest since September 2023. The ECB held rates on April 30 but struck a surprisingly hawkish note: President Lagarde confirmed a hike had been debated, declared the bank is "moving away" from its baseline scenario, and hawks Nagel and Müller both signalled a potential June increase. Markets now price around 75 basis points of ECB hikes by year-end.
The Strait of Hormuz remained closed throughout the week. Brent crude touched $114 intraday on Thursday – its highest since June 2022 – before pulling back after Pakistan confirmed Iran had delivered a new peace proposal to US mediators. Trump publicly rejected the offer, saying he was "not satisfied," but the diplomatic signal was enough to stabilise risk assets heading into the weekend: US equities hit all-time highs on Friday, and EUR/USD and crypto assets firmed.
Closing prices as of Friday, May 1, 2026:
EUR/USD – 1.1721 | Brent Crude Oil – $108.17 | Gold (XAU/USD Futures) – $4,661.40 | Silver (XAG/USD Futures) – $76.71 | Bitcoin – $77,400 | Ethereum – $2,284
EUR/USD
EUR/USD ended the week at 1.1721, essentially flat versus the prior Friday's close of 1.1722. The pair dipped to a three-week low of 1.1659 on April 30 under the dual pressure of a hawkish FOMC and surging oil, before recovering sharply on Friday on yen-intervention-driven dollar weakness and the ECB's hawkish tone. The structural backdrop has shifted meaningfully: the Fed is frozen on hold while the ECB has pivoted toward a potential hiking stance, narrowing the rate differential in the euro's favour. This is offset by the energy shock battering the Eurozone economy – Q1 GDP 0.1%, CPI 3.0% – making it a hike into a slowdown.
The week ahead centres on US Nonfarm Payrolls (Friday May 8). A strong print (150K+) reinforces the Fed's on-hold posture and pushes EUR/USD back toward 1.1630–1.1600. A weak result (sub-80K) revives cut expectations and could propel the pair above 1.1800. ISM Services PMI (Tuesday) and ADP Employment (Wednesday) will set the pre-NFP tone. Strait of Hormuz diplomatic progress remains an additional wildcard capable of pushing the pair toward 1.1900 by reducing oil and USD safe-haven demand.
Resistance: 1.1764, 1.1800, 1.1849. Support: 1.1659, 1.1630, 1.1600.
Baseline view: Neutral-to-bullish while holding above 1.1659. The ECB's emerging hawkish tilt versus the frozen Fed provides a medium-term structural tailwind. Near-term direction, however, will be decided by NFP on May 8.
Brent Crude Oil
Brent settled at $108.17 on Friday, down roughly 2% from Thursday's intraday peak above $114, after Iran's peace proposal reached Pakistani mediators. Despite the Friday pullback, Brent posted a second consecutive weekly gain – up approximately 2.7% from the prior close of $105.33. US crude exports have surged to record levels, but analysts warn that some nations are now consuming their last alternative cargoes as the final pre-closure Persian Gulf shipments have reached their destinations, with no new supply to replace them.
The geopolitical backdrop entering the new week is firmly bullish for oil. Trump publicly rejected Iran's proposal, vowed to maintain the US naval blockade, and the 60-day War Powers deadline passed without Congressional action. Iran's Supreme Leader pledged to retain nuclear and missile capabilities and control over the strait. No resolution appears imminent.
Resistance: $111, $114, $120. Support: $105, $103, $100.
Baseline view: Bullish above $103, driven by the ongoing geopolitical supply shock. A credible Hormuz diplomatic breakthrough is the only near-term bearish catalyst capable of delivering a rapid $10–$15 correction – but Trump's rejection of Iran's latest proposal makes that scenario unlikely at the week's open. Base case: further consolidation in the $105–$115 range.
Gold (XAU/USD)
Gold Futures closed the week at $4,661.40, declining approximately 1.7% from the prior Friday's close of $4,740.90. The week's low of around $4,560 was hit on Thursday before the metal recovered on dollar weakness following the Japanese yen intervention. Gold continues to navigate a paradoxical environment: the very geopolitical crisis that would normally support bullion is simultaneously driving oil higher, stoking inflation fears, delaying rate cuts, and strengthening the dollar – all headwinds for non-yielding gold. The World Gold Council confirmed that central banks increased gold reserves in Q1 2026, with global demand hitting a record $193 billion, providing a structural floor. XAU/USD is currently below its 20-day MA (~$4,698) and 100-day MA (~$4,746), both now acting as resistance. Friday's recovery stalled near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the recent decline at ~$4,650.
US NFP on May 8 is the primary trigger for the coming week. A weak jobs print revives rate-cut expectations and supports gold toward $4,780–$4,840. A strong print reinforces the Fed's on-hold stance and presses the metal back toward $4,580–$4,560. ISM Services (Tuesday) and ADP (Wednesday) provide pre-NFP directional signals. The Reuters analyst consensus places the 2026 gold median forecast at $4,916/oz, and long-term institutional targets (Goldman Sachs $5,400, JPMorgan $5,900) suggest the current weakness is corrective within a structural bull market.
Resistance: $4,700, $4,750, $4,840. Support: $4,600, $4,560, $4,480.
Baseline view: Neutral with a mild bearish bias below $4,700. Gold is caught in a tug-of-war between geopolitical uncertainty (bullish) and oil-driven inflation pushing rate expectations higher (bearish). A clear close above $4,700 signals recovery; a break below $4,560 opens the way to $4,480.
Silver (XAG/USD)
Silver Futures closed at $76.71, recovering sharply from Thursday's intraday low near $71.00 on dollar weakness and partial oil easing – a gain of over 3% on the day. Despite Friday's bounce, silver posted its second consecutive weekly decline, closing roughly 0.5% below the prior Friday's $76.414. The metal faces amplified versions of gold's headwinds: elevated rate expectations (non-yielding asset) compounded by recession fears from the energy shock that threaten manufacturing, electronics, and solar panel demand. UBS this week cut silver price forecasts across multiple horizons, citing weaker investment demand. Structurally, Big Tech's combined AI capex commitments of $715 billion (up 91% year-on-year) provide a medium-term industrial demand floor, as silver is integral to semiconductor and data centre infrastructure. The $70 level has held on three separate tests in 2026, establishing a genuine floor.
Technically, XAG/USD remains below its 50-day SMA (~$82). The 200-day SMA (~$75.23) is rising and offers nearby support. The Investing.com-identified pivot at ~$76.75 is the immediate battleground.
Resistance: $78.00, $80.00, $82.00. Support: $74.20, $71.00, $70.00.
Baseline view: Neutral with a bearish tilt below $78.00. The triple-tested $70 floor limits downside conviction, but UBS downgrades and macro headwinds keep recovery capped. NFP on May 8 and any shift in Hormuz diplomacy are the decisive catalysts.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
Bitcoin closed the week at approximately $77,400 – a gain of roughly 0.5% from the prior Friday's $77,546, maintaining remarkable stability through a high-volatility macro week. April closed as the strongest ETF inflow month of 2026 at approximately $1.97 billion. Strategy (MicroStrategy) disclosed $7.2 billion in purchases over the prior eight weeks, holding 818,334 BTC at an average cost of ~$75,537 – barely above current prices. Exchange reserves have fallen to a 7-year low. BTC dominance ticked to 60%, reflecting defensive positioning in majors. The Fear & Greed Index improved from 29 to 43 ("Fear") over the week.
The key technical challenge remains the $78,500–$80,000 resistance zone, which has repelled Bitcoin four times in two months. Bitcoin has not closed above its 200-day EMA at $82,228 in seven months. Critical week-ahead catalysts: Strategy Q1 earnings on May 5 (a pause in Bitcoin buying would remove a key demand pillar), Senate proceedings on Warsh's Fed Chair nomination, ISM Services (Tuesday), ADP (Wednesday), and NFP (Friday).
Resistance: $78,500, $80,000, $82,228. Support: $75,800, $74,500, $73,000.
Baseline view: Mildly bullish above $75,800, supported by record-low exchange supply and strong institutional accumulation. A decisive weekly close above $80,000–$82,228 is required to confirm structural recovery. Until then, the $74,500–$78,500 range persists.
Ethereum (ETH/USD)
Ethereum closed the week at approximately $2,284, down about 1.4% from the prior Friday's $2,317.46, continuing to underperform Bitcoin. The realised price of $2,308 (aggregate on-chain acquisition cost) is acting as overhead resistance, attracting distribution from holders near breakeven. ETH is below both its 50-day EMA (~$2,322) and 200-day MA (~$2,345), which have converged into a stiff resistance cluster. On the positive side: BitMine Immersion Technologies crossed 5,078,386 ETH in holdings; the Binance taker buy/sell ratio hit its highest since January 2023; and the 180-day MA of new smart contract deployments reached a record – a bullish fundamentals-versus-price divergence. April was the strongest ETF inflow month of 2026 for crypto overall.
ETH's direction will be driven by Bitcoin and macro catalysts – Strategy earnings, ISM, ADP, and NFP. ETH exhibits higher beta in both directions. The $2,200–$2,250 support zone is critical: multiple analysts warn that a break below $2,200 would "accelerate the dump" toward $2,150 and $2,100.
Resistance: $2,320, $2,345, $2,400. Support: $2,250, $2,200, $2,150.
Baseline view: Neutral with a slight bearish tilt below $2,320. The converging moving averages form a formidable resistance cluster. Strong ETF inflows and on-chain metrics argue against aggressive shorts. A weekly close above $2,345 would be the first convincing signal of recovery.
Conclusion
The week of May 4–8 brings a tight but high-impact macro calendar: ISM Services PMI (Tuesday), ADP Employment (Wednesday), Initial Jobless Claims (Thursday), and US Nonfarm Payrolls for April (Friday May 8) – the first report following Powell's final FOMC meeting, as Kevin Warsh awaits Senate confirmation. These data points arrive inside a framework defined by a frozen Fed, an ECB pivoting toward hikes, and a Strait of Hormuz that remains closed with no near-term resolution after Trump rejected Iran's latest proposal.
EUR/USD is supported by shifting rate differentials but awaits NFP for its next directional move. Brent consolidates at elevated levels – the supply shock is deepening, not fading. Gold is caught in a tug-of-war between safe-haven demand and oil-driven inflation pressure. Silver faces similar headwinds in amplified form. Bitcoin shows remarkable resilience through institutional accumulation and record-low exchange supply, with $80,000 as the defining breakout level. Ethereum closely mirrors Bitcoin with higher beta, the $2,320–$2,345 cluster as the key technical hurdle.
The week's central question: does the US labour market show enough softness to revive rate-cut expectations – and if so, can that outweigh the persistent inflationary overhang from $108 Brent? The answer will set the directional tone across all six instruments through mid-May.
NordFX Analytical Group
Disclaimer: These materials are not an investment recommendation or a guide for working on financial markets and are for informational purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a complete loss of deposited funds.
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