April 9, 2017

First, a few words about the forecast for the previous week, which has been fulfilled if not by 100, then by 90 percent for all four pairs:

  • Regarding the forecast for EUR/USD, it proved to be 100% accurate. Recall that over 80% of experts voted for the downward trend for this pair, indicating the 1.0600 support as a target. This was reached by the end of the week. However, we had also voiced some negative sentiment concerning the dollar in connection with the fall in US employment numbers (NFP). This also materialised, but the bullish force in this case was only enough to lift the pair to 1.0666. A minute later, it returned to the general trend and continued to fall;
  • As for the forecast for GBP/USD, the analysts once again turned out to be right. 80% of them insisted on its fall, indicating 1.2375 as the nearest support level. The pair ended last week’s session next to precisely this level;
  • Predicting the future of USD/JPY, trend indicators, oscillators, and graphical analysis all indicated the lateral movement of this pair in the 110.10-112.75 channel. This prediction also came true, with a small correction caused by the fact that the oscillation range was slightly smaller than expected, being 110.12-111.58; 
  • The proportion of supporters of USD/CHF growth among experts exceeded 70%, and 1.0100 was named as a target. Indeed, the pair started rushing up since mid-Monday. By Friday evening it conquered the height of 1.0096, short of the cherished mark by just 4 points.

 

Forecast for the coming week:

Summarizing the views of a number of analysts from leading banks and brokerage firms, as well as the forecasts made on the basis of a wide variety of technical and graphical analysis methods, we can say the following:

  • EUR/USD. The number of supporters of the idea that the pair can rebound from the horizon 1.0600 is growing, and 40% of experts already believe that it should at least temporarily rise to 1.0750. This version is supported both by graphical analysis on H4 and D1, and by oscillators, about half of which indicate on H4 that the pair is oversold. As for the medium-term forecast, over 75% of analysts look southwards awaiting the pair to drop to the 1.0400-1.0500 zone, and perhaps even lower; 
  • Assessing the prospects of GBP/USD, more than 70% of experts sided with the bears. Both indicators and graphical analysis agree with this point of view, naming 1.2330 as the nearest support level. The next support level is in the 1.2240 zone. It should be noted that the pair is currently in a zone with rather strong medium-term support, which also comprises the Pivot level for the side channel 1.1980-1.2730, which was laid out last October. Thus, we cannot exclude its rebound to the 1.2450-1.2500 area.

  • If last week 70% of analysts spoke of the growth of USD/JPY, their number has now increased to 90%. The targets remain identical: 112.00 and 113.55. However, the pair will be able to reach these targets only at the end of April or in early May. As for the immediate future, everybody — experts, graphic analysis and indicators — expects the pair to retest the local bottom at 110.00;
  • Elation continues to reign in the camp of USD/CHF growth supporters, which currently includes approximately 75% of experts. The next targets after the pair reaches the 1.0100 mark are identified as 1.0170 and 1.0215. An alternative point of view is voiced by about a quarter of analysts and graphical analysis on H4. According to them, the pair will continue to move downwards in the medium channel (clearly visible on D1 and W1, started in December 2016) and will shortly start striving towards its centre line in the 0.9950 vicinity.

Roman Butko, NordFX


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