September 12, 2016

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

  • as for the forecast for EUR/USD, those 40% of experts, who believed that the pair would go up to the resistance of 1.1300, which virtually happened, were right. As expected, the ECB interest and deposit rates decision and corresponding commentary from the governor of the mega-regulator turned out to be the key event for it. Eventually, having reached the level of 1.1325 on Thursday, the pair showed impressive volatility, then it reversed and went down, wrapping up the week around the strong level of support/resistance of 1.1230;
  • as a reminder, assessing the prospects for GBP/USD last week, 80% of experts, the graphical analysis on D1 and 75% of indicators pointed to the north, indicating 1.3370 and 1.3480 as the levels of resistance. As expected, as early as Monday the pair reached the first target, rebounded, but in a day it overcame this obstacle and surged further upwards. It failed to reach the high of July 15 - 1.3480 – however even the high of 1.3445 may be considered as the upper boundary of the summer sideways channel. Having reached it, the pair reversed and returned to the levels of the early week;
  • the forecast for USD/JPY reckoned that the pair would fail to get over the resistance in the area of 104.00 – 104.50,and it would have to move down to the support of 102.30. With this, the graphical analysis specified that during the month the pair could go further down – to the level of 100.90. However, data on the USA economy allowed making a breakthrough to the south much earlier – as early as Tuesday, on September 6, the pair literally collapsed, having reached the bottom at the level of 101.20. However later the bulls could pare over half of losses, and by Friday the pair returned to the area of 102.50 – 103.00;
  • if usually USD/CHF shows strong negative correlation with EUR/USD, last week, on top of that, it almost precisely replicated the chart of USD/JPY, simultaneously confirming the forecast for a gradual consolidation at the pivot level of 0.9800. During the whole year the pair has been haunting this level, which happened also this time – it ended the week in the area of 0.9750 – 0.9785.


Forecast for the Upcoming Week:

Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:

  • predicting the future of EUR/USD, the vast majority of experts believe that the ascending channel, which had begun in July, will continue. According to this forecast, for a while the pair can move backing on the support of 1.1200, following which it will go up. The nearest target will be at 1.1420, if it will be broken through - 1.1500. Only one analyst expressed an alternative point of view – in his opinion, in the near future the pair will break through the boundary of the ascending channel and it will go down to the support of 1.1120;
  • assessing the prospects for GBP/USD, most indicators tend towards a sideways movement. The experts, backed by the graphical analysis, determine the boundaries of this channel ranging from 1.3200 to 1.3500. With this, lots of news from Great Britain, released on Tuesday, Wednesday and, especially, on Thursday, can influence the acting of the pair. As for the longer term forecast, 75% of analysts along with the graphical analysis on D1 believe that, for sure, the pair will test the lows of June-July in the area of 1.2750 – 1.2850;  
  • giving a forecast for USD/JPY, both experts (65%) and the graphical analysis on Н4 and D1 expect the pair to fall down to the support of 101.20, and then even further down to 99.50. 10% predict a sideways trend, and the remaining 25% insist on the pair’s rise to the area of 103.20 – 104.00;
  • as to the last pair of our review – USD/CHF, the forecast here remains unchanged - a gradual consolidation at the pivot level of 0.9750 – 0.9800. The support will be at the levels of 0.9685 and 0.9580. The resistance will be at 0.9840 and 0.9890.


Roman Butko, NordFX

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