November 6, 2016
First, a review of last week’s forecast:
- Giving our forecast for EUR/USD, we warned that it will be the political rather than economic situation that would determine all dollar pair trends in the run up to the presidential elections in the United States. That is what has been happening. Any shift of the American electorate in favour of Donald Trump played against the dollar. As a result, surprisingly, the most accurate forecast was given not by experts, but... by graphical analysis, which predicted the growth of the pair to the resistance level of 1.1100, which was reached on Wednesday, November 2. Then, turning this resistance into a Pivot level, the pair moved to a sideways trend and finished the week at 1.1140;
- GBP/USD. The situation with this pair proved to be similar to what happened to EUR/USD. In this case an additional bullish hand was played by the UK High Court ruling, which said that Prime Minister Theresa May cannot start the process of the UK leaving the EU without a vote in Parliament. As a result, the pair broke all expected resistance levels and rose to the level of 1.2517;
- With regard to the forecast for USD/JPY, technical analysis also proved to be as accurate as can realistically be expected. As a reminder, indicator and graphical analysis suggested that the pair would again try to move closer to the resistance level of 105.50, after which it would literally collapse - first to the support level of 104.00 and then even lower - to the 102.40-102.80 zone. If we look at the chart, we see that this prediction came true by almost 100% - the pair started Monday by moving northwards, but after reaching 105.22 it turned around. On Tuesday it flew down, slowed down for a few hours in the 104.00 area and reached its low point at the level of 102.54 on Thursday. Then, after a small correction, the pair settled down and moved to a sideways trend, moving in the 102.82-103.35 channel;
- Graphical analysis turned out to be 100% correct in its forecast for USD/CHF as well. It clearly pointed out that the pair would reach the bottom at the level of 0.9680: at the end of the week-long session it obediently stopped with this precise value being displayed on the monitor.
Forecast for the Upcoming week:
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and brokerage companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:
- In anticipation of the upcoming Presidential election in the United States on Tuesday November 8, it is a fruitless task to make any forecasts on dollar pairs. That is why more than 60% of the experts just shrug when speaking about the near future of EUR/USD. As for the indicators, they almost unanimously insist on the growth of the pair in agreement with those analysts who predict a fall of the dollar by more than 1000 points in the event Donald Trump wins the election. But, judging by the fact that 85% of experts suggest growth of the dollar in the medium-term, they are inclined to believe that Hillary Clinton will be elected new US President. In this case, according to them, the pair can go down about 500 points and reach the mark of 1.0600;
- The opinion of analysts on the future of GBP/USD is also quite vague. About 50% of them, together with indicators, look to the north, 35% look to the south and the remaining 15%, supported by graphical analysis on D1, look to the east. It is worth mentioning that there is no consensus in the medium term either – a certain clarity will only emerge following the results of the American election. However, there may be serious corrections of trends depending on the situation with the UK exit from the European Union;
- USD/JPY. The experts are split in their forecast exactly halfway, with one half of them expecting growth and the other a fall. The reasons for this are clear and have been described above. As for a longer term forecast, almost 70% of analysts believe the dollar will strengthen and the pair will grow at least to the 106.00-107.00 zone;
- And finally the last pair of our review - USD/CHF. Here the opinion of the experts is almost unanimous: more than 90% of them believe that the pair will certainly go back to 1.0000-1.0100 marks. Graphical analysis agrees with this opinion as well, naming 0.9820 as the first target.
In conclusion, let me mention the opinion of NordFX senior analyst John Gordon. "Analysis of previous presidential elections in the United States shows,” stresses the NordFX expert, “that a bounce always takes place, regardless of who wins, be it the Republicans or the Democrats. Most likely, the post-election trend, as before, will last for 2-3 months, ie for as long as investors take to figure out which out which of their electoral promises the new President will fulfil and which will merely remain words on paper. This is a very good period for traders, giving one the opportunity to earn good money. In this situation, traders should manage their financial assets very wisely and should remain alert, so as not to miss the chance to utilise 100% of these new trade opportunities."
Roman Butko, NordFX