January 23, 2017
First, a review of last week’s forecast:
- The main forecast for the EUR/USD pair had said that early in the week the pair could rise to 1.0685 or even higher to the 1.0700-1.0800 area. This is what happened in reality. By just Tuesday, the pair reached the 1.0720 level, before returning 130 points downwards and jumping back up again, finishing the week near the 1.0700 mark;
- GBP/USD. Regarding the behaviour of this pair, 50% of the experts predicted its movement to the north and graphical analysis indicated a target in the area of 1.2400-1.2500. This turned out to be 100% correct. In the first half of the week, the pair did the seemingly impossible: inspired by the speeches of the Governor of the Bank of England M. Carney and the British Prime Minister T. May, as well as by optimistic indicators of the economy of this island state, the pair leapt upwards by 430 points and returned to the strong level support/resistance of the last four months in the 1.2385-1.2415 zone;
- In the case of USD/JPY, most experts and indicators on H4 and D1 had expected the pair to descend to a local minimum in the area of 113.00, after which it had been expected to turn around and go north. In reality, the pair surpassed these expectations, marking the minimum as 45 points lower than predicted at the level of 112.56. This was followed by the scheduled rebound and the pair returned to the 114.60 mark, to the upper boundary of the February-March 2016 corridor;
- USD/CHF. 65% of experts, trend indicators and graphical analysis on H4, as well as oscillators on H4 and D1 had strongly advised to sell the pair, believing that it would definitely reach the 0.9950-1.0000 zone. Those traders who followed this advice, were able to profit considerably. Mirroring the movements of EUR/USD, the pair recorded the minimum at the level of 0.9995 on Tuesday.
Forecast for the coming week:
Summarizing the views of a number of analysts from leading banks and brokerage firms, as well as the forecasts made on the basis of a wide variety of technical and graphical analysis methods, we can say the following:
- It is clear that, speaking of the near future of EUR/USD, the vast majority (80%) of trend indicators look northwards. Meanwhile, one third of the oscillators indicates that the pair is overbought. About 60% of analysts together with graphical analysis on D1 expect it to descend to the level of 1.0500. After that, in their view, the pair will be able to return to the 1.0650 resistance;
- A similar picture emerges with respect to the behaviour of the GBP/USD as well. Most indicators on H4 vote for the growth of the pair, whilst on D1 they do not exclude the beginning of a fall. 65% of experts are also in agreement with the bears. The nearest support level is 1.2300, with the next one being 1.2200. The bottom is in the area of the minimum of October 2016 at 1.1950-1.2000. As for graphical analysis, it draws a corridor with a relatively large range on D1, the low being 1.2000 and the high being1.2420. The next resistance is 1.2550;
- USD/JPY. Trend indicators in this case, have taken a neutral position. The readings of oscillators differ: on H4 they insist on buying, and on D1 they insist on selling. There is no unity among the experts and graphical analysis either. The majority of the former (60%), insist that the pair will go up to the 116.00-117.50 area. The latter, both on H4 and D1, believe that it must first once again test the January lows of 113.00 and 112.55;
- As for the last pair of our review, USD/CHF, 75% of the experts along with graphical analysis expect a sideways trend within 0.9995-1.0200. An alternative view sees the pair going down to the level of 0.9900. However, this can only happen in the event of any significant economic or political developments in the EU and the USA, which are not expected next week.
Roman Butko, NordFX