January 25, 2016
First, a review of last week’s forecast:
- the experts’ opinion about EUR/USD’s bearish sentiment proved right – the pair fell by 120 points during the week. However, this is exactly how short it was of the 1.0650 low indicated by graphical analysis. Thus, the forecast came half true;
- the GBP/USD pair met the expectations of the indicators, the experts and graphical analysis. The indicators had insisted on a further downtrend, and it did continue – the pair dropped another 200 points. The experts had also anticipated a rebound, which happened as well – from Thursday, the pair went up. Graphical analysis on H1 had claimed that the peak would be at 1.4370, and GBP/USD nearly got there, stopping short at 1.4362;
- the forecast for USD/JPY had consisted of two stages – first, a rise to 117.40-118.00 and then a drop to support at 116.00. That transpired to a tee – on Tuesday, the pair reached resistance at 118.10, rebounded from it and got to the low of 116.00 on Wednesday. The forecast had indicated that this cycle would take all week but USD/JPY completed both stages before Thursday. During Thursday and Friday, the pair went up to the lower boundary of the triangle, which had been formed over last August - October;
- there was no consensus about USD/CHF. The forecast by graphical analysis on H1 turned out to be more or less correct with some approximation – a rise to 1.01125 (the pair went up to 1.00825) and then a return to 1.0020 (the pair stopped at 1.0000). As for larger timeframes, graphical analysis on D1 had forecast quite a fast rise to 1.02500, and, in fact, USD/CHF went up sharply reaching 1.0165 by the end of the week.
Forecast for Upcoming Week
Generalizing the opinions of scores of analysts from leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:
- surprisingly, there is unanimity about EUR/USD as 75% of the analysts, all indicators on all timeframes and graphical analysis on H1 vote for a fall to 1.0650-1.0700. Alternatively, 25% of the analysts and graphical analysis on D1 support bullish sentiment and a rise to 1.0850-1.0900. After that, however, the pair should drop trying to reach the low of the first week of last December;
- the analysts' opinions on GBP/USD are split three almost even ways – 33% for a fall to 1.4000, 33% for a rise to 1.4550 and the remaining third for a sideways trend. The indicators and graphical analysis on H4 agree with the latter, drawing a channel in a 1.4120-1.4330 range. Graphical analysis on D1 sides with those experts who speak about a further rebound upward, citing exactly the same level of 1.4550;
- the indicators and graphical analysis on H4 predict that USD/JPY will rebound to 119.50. However, the experts differ again – one-third of them are for a rise, 40% are for a side trend with a 118.00 pivot point and the rest are for the pair’s return to last week’s low;
- last week, graphical analysis predicted USD/CHF would soar to 1.02500. This bullish sentiment stands for this week too but with a corrected target of 1.0210, at which the pair should reverse and go back to the pivot point at 1.0080. The indicators on H4 and D1 and 70% of the experts agree with this view. The analysts set 1.0300 as the pair’s final longer-term target, followed by a drop to 0.9800, which may take 2-3 weeks.
Roman Butko, NordFX