August 15, 2016
First, a review of last week’s forecast:
- the forecast for EUR/USD reckoned that early in the week the pair could tick up to the level of 1.1130, and if it was broken through – it would go up to 1.1170. The high of 1.1220 was indicated as the third resistance. The pair fully fulfilled the plan: on Tuesday it reached the level of 1.1130, on Wednesday it broke through it, got to the mark of 1.1170, having turned it into the pivot point, and on Friday it took the high of 1.1220 on news from the USA. After this uprise the pair rushed back, failing to drive out of the range of the three-month descending channel;
- as a reminder, speaking of GBP/USD, 100% of experts expressed the view, that during August the pair would retest the bottom within 1.2700–1.2800 again for sure. The pair seemed to hear that forecast, and during the whole week it was aggressively striving to go down, however, so far it could drop only to the mark of 1.2900;
- as to the last week’s acting of USD/JPY, it was impossible to form any consensus: experts pointed down – to the area of 98.90–100.00, the technical analysis reckoned that before going down the pair would first try to reach the upper boundary of this long-term descending channel within 103.50–104.00. Eventually, moving alongside the sideways channel, the pair failed to reach either mark, keeping within 100.96–102.65;
- USD/CHF – here the half of experts believed that the pair would try to consolidate above the level of 0.9800. The rest 50% of analysts reckoned that the pair would fail to do so, and that it would move within 0.9735–0.9900. Looking at the weekly chart, it may be concluded that both turned out to be right: during the first two days the pair tried hard to consolidate above the level of 0.9800, and afterwards the bulls gave up, and the pair plunged, wrapping up the week in the area of 0.9750.
Forecast for the Upcoming Week:
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:
- giving forecast for EUR/USD, most experts, backed by the graphical analysis on H4, indicate the area of 1.1100 as the nearest support. The area of 1.1230 is expected to act the resistance, and if it is broken through, the pair can make attempts to heave upwards by further 100 points – up to the level of 1.1330. 80% of indicators on Н4 and D1 agree with this scenario. As for the longer-term outlook, near 100% of experts are sure that the three-month descending trend will continue, and the pair will try to reach the level of 1.0800 or even 1.0600;
- it’s clear, that speaking of the future of GBP/USD, 100% of indicators point to the south. As to the experts and the graphical analysis, they believe that in the short term the pair will fail to rise above the support of 1.2810–1.2850, and when bouncing off it, the pair will go up to the area of 1.3200–1.3250. It should be specified that around 70% of experts are sure that in the medium term the pair will go south again under the bears’ pressure, where it will try to test the support of 1.2700, and if it is broken through, it will go further down – to the mark of 1.2500;
- as to the future of USD/JPY, the majority of experts and the graphical analysis on H4 and D1 agree that for a while the pair will continue moving in a sideways channel within 100.70–102.50, after which it will upswing to the area of 103.00-104.00. And only 20% of analysts believe that there is still a chance that the pair will go down to the mark of 100.00;
- as to the last pair of our review – USD/CHF, the forecasts have been indicating to the magic level of 0.9800 for several months in a row. And this week the experts believe that first the pair will strive for reaching this high, and then it will consolidate above it – at the area of 0.9800–0.9900. Agreeing with this scenario, the graphical analysis specifies that first the pair will make several attempts to rise above the resistance of 0.9765 and only then, rebounding from the support of 0.9700–0.9730, will surge northwards.
Roman Butko, NordFX