December 4, 2016
First, a review of last week’s forecast:
- With a few minor allowances, last week's forecast for EUR/USD can be considered fulfilled. As a reminder, the indicators on H4 predicted a sideways trend, one third of the experts expected the pair to rebound into the 1.0650-1.0700 area, and the remainder referred to the level of 1.0500 as a support level. Graphical analysis pointed to the sideways channel in the 1.0500-1.0720 range. The pair did, in fact, end up spending the whole week traveling eastwards. However, the pair never actually managed to reach the aforementioned support level: this week’s low-point was 50 points higher at 1.0551. However, it entered the resistance zone three times, reaching the level of 1.0690 on Friday;
- The forecast for GBP/USD was talking about a lateral movement of this pair with a dominant bullish trend. However, it turned out that the "dominant" did not do the bulls justice as a descriptor. From Monday to Wednesday the pair, as expected, was moving sideways, oscillating in the 1.2385-1.2530 range. After that, however the bulls, regaining their strength, made a great stride northwards, and in a matter of hours won 200 points from the bears. As a result, the pair finished the week at the level of 1.2730;
- Giving the outlook for USD/JPY, we noted that the pair had reached the corridor where it was moving in February-March 2016. Its upper boundary was within 113.80-114.85, whilst the lower boundary was at 110.80. At the same time, resting on the assumption that the pair was overbought, 55% of the experts expected a decline of the pair at least to the level of 111.35. That is exactly what happened. On Monday, the pair went down precisely to the aforementioned support, then turned around and went to the upper boundary of the corridor, stopping at the height of 114.82. Then it rebounded and completed the week’s session in the 113.50 area;
- USD/CHF. Here, as it often happens, graphical analysis proved to be almost 100 percent accurate, pointing to a sideways trend within the 1.0100-1.0190 range. In fact, the pair kept within the 1.0070-1.0200 range, meaning that the forecast error did not exceed the typical margin of 25-30 points.
Forecast for the upcoming week:
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and brokerage companies, as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:
- Predicting the future of EUR/USD, the indicators on H4 actively recommend its purchase. D1 indicators, on the other hand, have taken a neutral position. 65% of analysts tend to the view that the pair will again test the December 2015 low at 1.0510 and will possibly descend to the March 2015 low of 1.0460. As for graphical analysis, it clarifies that a significant upward rebound to the resistance in the 1.0900 zone may follow. It should be noted that at the time of this forecast’s writing the results of the referendum in Italy are still unknown. It is only natural to assume that these results can make significant adjustments to the determination of euro currency pair rates;
- It is absolutely clear that when predicting the future of GBP/USD almost all indicators point to the growth of the pair, with only a fifth of the oscillators saying that it is overbought. However, the opinion of the majority of experts (65%) and graphical analysis on D1 is diametrically opposite. According to their forecast, the pair must first descend to the level of 1.2510 and then proceed to go even lower to the support at 1.2385 and 1.2300. The resistance will be in the 1.2865-1.3015 zone;
- USD/JPY. Just as in the GBP/USD case, the indicators suggest purchasing the pair and the majority of experts (55%) recommend selling it. Graphical analysis seems to provide a compromise view: according to its readings, the pair will continue to fluctuate within the boundaries of the February-March 2016 corridor. In other words, it will first rise again to the upper border of 114.85 and then fall to the level of 110.80;
- Now onto USD/CHF. Here, 70% of experts, graphical analysis, and 80% of indicators on H4 vote for the fall of the pair at least to the level of 1.0000, or indeed even lower to the 0.9900 vicinity. An alternative point of view is expressed by the remaining 30% of analysts and the indicators on D1: according to them the pair will continue to stay in the side channel in the range 1.0070-1.0200 for some time.
Roman Butko, NordFX