February 20, 2017
First, a review of last week’s forecast:
- Recall that when predicting the future of EUR/USD, the vast majority of analysts, supported by indicators, voted in favour of the continuation of the downtrend and the decline of the pair to the 1.0500 zone. That was what happened: for the entire first half of the week the pair moved southwards, reaching the horizon of 1.0520. Then, helped by the Chair of the US Federal Reserve, whose speech was called boring by some, the pair reversed and rose by 150 points. Then the bulls' strength was exhausted, and, having lost 70 points, the pair finished the week almost where it started: in the vicinity of a strong medium-term support / resistance level in the 1.0610 area;
- The forecast for GBP/USD also came almost entirely true. Here, the bears were supported not just by analysts and indicators, but also by graphical analysis. According to their shared opinion, the pair was supposed to initially go down to 1.2410 and then to 1.2350. At the same time, one third of experts suggested that, reaching the bottom at 1.2350, the pair would then proceed to a sideways movement in the 1.2350-1.2550 range. If you look at the chart, it is clear that all that has ended up, albeit with a permissible sway of 20-25 points;
- The opinion of both analysts, and technical analysis on the behaviour of USD/JPY was very vague last week. However, almost 70% of experts claimed that in the medium term, the pair would go up to 115.00. This is exactly what the pair did, although it did so earlier than expected: it had already reached the height of 114.95 on Wednesday. Then, just like the euro/dollar, it returned to this year's strong support/resistance level in the 112.60 area;
- The forecast for USD/CHF was also very accurate and 100% confirmed the unanimous opinion of 100% of analysts and technical analysis. Mirroring the behaviour of EUR/USD, the pair reached the goal, the height of 1.0100, in the middle of the week and then proceeded to the milestone level of 1.0000.
Forecast for the coming week:
Summarizing the views of a number of analysts from leading banks and brokerage firms, as well as the forecasts made on the basis of a wide variety of technical and graphical analysis methods, we can say the following:
- The next week's economic calendar is not marked by any particularly important event. Perhaps that is why expert opinions on the behaviour of EUR/USD are almost equally divided: one third predict the growth of the pair, another third predict a lateral trend and the last third suggest its fall. The latter are actively supported by graphical analysis on H4. According to this analysis, the pair should once again test the bottom at 1.0500, after which it may turn and rise to the resistance of 1.0850. As for the medium-term forecast, the picture is quite different: more than 70% of analysts actively supported by trend indicators and oscillators on D1 predict the strengthening of the dollar and the fall of the pair. The parity zone at the level of 1.0000 is named as a key target;
- A similar pattern is observed for GBP/USD. Here, 65% analysts, graphical analysis and more than 90% of indicators stand on the side of the bears. According to their forecast, the pair is expected to fall to the lower bound of the major side corridor 1.1985-1.2720, where it has been located ever since October 2016. For this to happen, however, it first has to overcome support at the level of the central line of the channel, which is 1.2345. This could delay its descent for a few days. In this case, a rebound of the pair to the resistance of 1.2550 is possible;
- The opinions of analysts and indicators about the future of USD/JPY have radically diverged. Whilst the former expect the pair to grow, the latter are confident that it will fall. The compromise option is the side corridor in the 112.40-115.00 range, this view being offered by graphical analysis on D1. The next support will be at 111.60, and the resistance will be 116.50;
- As for the last pair of our review, USD/CHF, both experts and technical analysis expect a strengthening of the bearish sentiment and the transition of the pair to a sideways trend in the 0.9960-1.0050 channel. In the event it breaks the lower border of the channel, it is possible that the pair will go down to the 0.9870-0.9900 area. As for the medium-term objectives, 75% of analysts still expect the pair to rise to the height of 1.0330.
Roman Butko, NordFX