February 18, 2018
First, a review of last week’s forecast. It should be noted that the forecast for bitcoin and other cryptocurrency pairs proved to be almost 100% true.
- The forecast for EUR/USD once again confirmed that the signals of a quarter of oscillators that the pair is overbought / oversold, provide very good reasons to expect a break in the trend. This time, according to 45% of analysts confirmed by such signals, the pair had been expected to turn north and return to zone 1.2350-1.2530, which was what happened. Starting from Monday, the pair was growing steadily and on Friday, it rose to the highs of the last four weeks, reaching the level of 1.2555. After that, the dollar played back 155 points, and the pair fell to the level of 1.2400;
- A similar forecast was given for GBP/USD. The final target was to return to the January highs in the zone 1.4150-1.4350. And this task was almost completed. On February 16, the pair climbed to the height of 1.4145. However, it did not manage to stay there, and met the weekend at 1.4030;
- When giving a forecast for USD/JPY, the majority of experts (60%), supported by graphical analysis, expected that the pair would necessarily test the lower boundary of the mid-term side corridor 108.00-114.75 and, in case of its breakthrough, might fall to the low of September 2017 - 107.30. In reality, the pair not only fulfilled, but even exceeded the task, losing 325 points during the week and having fixed a local bottom at the horizon 105.50. As for the end of the trading session, the pair completed it at around 106.30;
- Cryptocurrencies. Last week, based on the opinions of crypto-exchanges experts, we gave the first forecast for four basic crypto-pairs. And it turned out to be practically absolutely true:
- The forecast for Bitcoin (BTC/USD) expected the pair to grow to the zone 10,300-12,160. In reality, it has grown to the level of 10,240;
- Ethereum (ETH/USD): the forecast expected the growth to the zone 1,025-1,125, in reality, it grew to the level of 942.00;
- Litecoin (LTC/USD): a growth was expected to the zone 173-213, in reality, it grew to the level of 235;
- Ripple (XRP/USD) - growth to the zone of 1.015-1.185 was expected, in reality it grew to the level of 1.164.
As for the forecast for the upcoming week, summarizing the opinions of analysts from a number of banks, broker companies and crypto-exchanges, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:
- EUR/USD. Almost 70% of experts, supported by graphical analysis on D1 and indicators (90%), expect the pair to continue growing. The nearest target is the zone 1.2500-1.2555, the next one is a strong support / resistance zone of years 2012-14, 1.2755
As for the bears' supporters, they expect the pair to fall to support 1.2335, and then another 100 points lower - to 1.2235. It should be noted here that when moving from a weekly forecast to a medium-term forecast, the number of supporters of dollar strengthening increases from 30% to 65%;
- GBP/USD. The forecast for this pair repeats the forecast for EUR/USD for the second week in a row, with only small differences. 65% of analysts, graphical analysis and the vast majority of indicators vote for the growth of the pair. Only 10% of oscillators on D1 signal that the pair is oversold. The support levels are 1.3900, 1.3835 and 1.3765. The resistance levels are 1.4145, 1.4275 and 1.4345.
Just as in the case of EUR/USD, in the medium term, the number of supporters of bears increases from 35% to 60%. The goal is to return to zone 1.3455-1.3585;
- USD/JPY. Experts' opinions about breaking the lower line of the medium-term side corridor 108.00-114.75 are divided almost equally. 45% consider it to be false and expect the pair to turn upwards. 20% of the oscillators agree with this scenario, signaling that the pair is oversold. As for the remaining 55% experts, they consider the breakthrough to have happened, and the target of the pair in this case is zone 104.00-105.55;
- and, finally, cryptocurrencies. As they are traded on weekends as well, it is more appropriate to look at a seven-day period, from Saturday February 17 to Friday, February 23.
Recall that the forecast is based on the opinions of experts from a number of leading crypto-exchanges, as well as indications of technical analysis.
- Bitcoin (BTC/USD) - MFI indicator on D1 approaches the oversold zone, but has not yet reached it. Analysts agree with this as well, believing that the pair can continue its growth to the 10.500-11.000 zone, after which it is expected to turn and fall to the level of 9.470, and then return to the zone 8.300-8.970;
- Ethereum (ETH/USD) may approach the mark 1,000 at the beginning of the forecast period. Then this pair is also expected to turn to the south and to go down to the echelon of 775-840;
- Litecoin (LTC/USD) - MFI indicator is already in the oversold zone; volume indicators indicate the increasing activity of bears. According to experts, the pair's growth potential is almost exhausted, but we cannot exclude its growth to the mark 250. After that, a return to the level 220, and in case of its breakthrough - a drop to the horizon 165;
- Ripple. As for the pair XRP/USD, it finished the last week was rather sluggishly, with small volatility and minimal trading volumes. However, the pair can still try to get to the height of 1.164, and only then will it go to the south - to support 0.83, and then, possibly, even lower - to the horizon 0.77.
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Roman Butko, NordFX
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