March 18, 2018
First, a few words about the forecast for the previous week, which proved fully correct for cryptocurrencies:
- EUR/USD. When giving forecast for this pair, a large number of analysts claimed that the pair would continue to stay in the 1.2150-1.2550 side channel which it has been moving in since mid-January. It ended up doing just that, albeit with volatility even lower than expected - the difference between the highest (1.2412) and the lowest (1.2260) points of the week was only about 150 points. By the end of the week, the pair finished at 1.2288, only 17 points below where it had started;
- Even though only 20% of experts and graphical analysis on D1 suggested the growth of GBP/USD, the pair started going up at the very start of the week and had already approached the level of 1.4000 by Tuesday. However, despite all the efforts of the bulls, the pair was unable to break through this resistance, and by the end of the week it retreated to 1.3935, which can now can be considered the Pivot Point of this February-March;
- USD/JPY. Regarding the future of this pair, expert opinions were divided evenly last week: 33% sided with bulls, 33% joined the bears, and the rest froze in the middle. This ambivalence is approximately how the pair behaved itself: at first it fell a little, then grew a little, then fell again. The most forecast accurate was that given by graphical analysis, which had suggested the lateral channel of 105.25-107.65, within which the pair ended up moving all week (minimum - 105.59, maximum 107.28);
- We now reach cryptocurrencies: Regarding bitcoin, experts expected its fall to 7.740: BTC/USD fell to 7.638 by Thursday. Thus, the forecast turned out to be very accurate, and the error in determining the target was only about 1%.
Forecasts for Ethereum, Litecoin and Ripple were also disappointing for the owners of these coins and, to their great despair, fully accurate. Experts predicted these virtual currencies would lose 10% to 20% in value. On 15 March, all these pairs reached the local bottom: Ethereum fell by 21.67% (from 721.50 to 565.09), Litecoin by 20.4% (from 186.71 to 148.59) and Ripple by 25.9% (from 0.767 to 0.568). However, the bulls then managed to win back part of the losses. Thus, by the end of the week, ETH/USD had lost 15.6%, LTC/USD lost 10.2%, and XRP/USD lost 18.0%. BTC/USD had the lowest loss, about 7.7%.
As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:
- Dollar pairs expect important events on Wednesday 21 March: prime amongst these is the decision of the US Federal Reserve on the interest rate. According to forecasts, it will be increased from 1.50% to 1.75%, which will most likely result in dollar strengthening.
As for EUR/USD, more than 80% of trend indicators and 85% of oscillators look to the south. However, almost half of the experts, supported by the graphical analysis on D1, believe that at the beginning of the week the pair will still stay in the sideways trend within 1.2275-1.2445. 15% of oscillators signal that the pair is oversold, and also indicate that the bulls still retain some force and will try to push the pair up on the eve of the Fed decision.
In case the pair falls, the first support zone is 1.2150-1.2200, the next one is at 1.2000;
- GBP/USD. At the end of last week, the indicators on H4 took a neutral position, whilst those on D1 continued to look up, opining that both the two-week trend, and the broader one stretching from January 2017, will continue. The nearest targets are 1.4000, 1.4065 and 1.4145.
However, unlike indicators, experts can take important economic data into account. This will be plentiful next week both for the pound and the dollar, with Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday all seeing the release of important data. Here, most analysts (60%) still expect the weakening of the British currency and the fall of the pair. The nearest support is in the 1.3710-1.3760 zone. In the event of its breakdown, in the medium term the pair may descend to 1.3445-1.3585;
- The view on the future of the USD/JPY is as follows: 70% of the experts, graphical analysis on D1 and 90% of the indicators on H4 and D1, look southwards, waiting for the pair to continue moving in the medium-term channel. The resistances are 106.40, 106.75 and 107.25. Supports are 105.25, 104.50 and 104.00.
It should be noted that in the medium term, the number of bull supporters among analysts increases from 30% to 65%. The goal is to climb into the 108.00-110.00 zone;
- The forecast for the main currency pairs is the following. BTC/USD: experts expect the pair to return to the highs of the previous week. According to their forecast, the pair should rise to 8,850-9,400. ETH/USD: growth to 655.00, and then on to 670.00-740.00. LTC/USD: rise to 170.00-181.00, and, in case of a break through the resistance, a rise to 193.00. XRP/USD: the target is 0.688-0.780, at with the pair possibly rising to 0.810 at the end of the week.
We would like to stress at this point that even minor events can influence the trends and volatility of cryptocurrencies. Therefore, we strongly suggest that you pay attention to smart money management, which, combined with leverage of 1: 1000, will significantly reduce your trading risks. After all, to buy 10 Bitcoins, 100 Ethereums, 500 Litecoins or 100,000 Ripples, with such leverage you will only need $100, and you can keep the rest of your money in reserve.
Roman Butko, NordFX