May 13, 2018
First, a review of last week’s forecast:
- EUR/USD. Recall that the opinions of experts last week were divided almost evenly: one third sided with the bears, one third sided with the bulls, and 30% took a neutral position, expecting a sideways trend. As a result, as if fulfilling an order, the pair first went down to the level of 1.1822, then rose by 145 points and completed the five-day period almost in the same place where it started, in the zone of 1.1940.
In total, in less than a month, from April 19 to May 09, the pair lost about 580 points, without any serious corrections, which caused serious financial damage to those traders who had opened positions to buy against the trend and could not stand such an impressive drawdown of the deposit;
- a similar divergence of opinions could be observed when assessing the future of the GBP/USD. We could expect any changes in the monetary policy of the Bank of England on Thursday, May 10, but everything went on without surprises, and the pair stayed practically within the boundaries of the side corridor, which was drawn for it by graphical analysis, 1.3460-1.3615.
- The pair USD/JPY also moved into a sideways trend, making return-oscillating movements in the range of 108.75-110.00 the second week in a row. The week ended with the pair being close to the beginning of the week, in the horizon, which can be called Pivot Point in the first half of May - 109.40;
- Cryptocurrencies. Experts expected the bitcoin to grow above the 10.300 mark, and the pair BTC/USD did, from the very beginning, go up, but could not even reach 10,000. Having reached the mark of 9,950, it turned and rolled down. the fall was accelerated by the Mt.Gox sell-off and by the statements of two super-billionaires - the head of Berkshire Hathaway Warren Buffett and the Microsoft founder Gates.
The Japanese crypto-exchange Mt.Gox sold bitcoins worth more than $ 70 million, and the market immediately responded to it by a large-scale correction. Things were made even worse by Warren Buffett, who said that cryptocurrencies would end badly, and Bill Gates, who called bitcoin one of the most speculative things in the world. As a result, the pair fell below a very strong support level of 8.620 on Friday, May 11.
ETH/USD and XRP/USD could not achieve their goals either. it was only the LTC/USD that fulfilled the task, reaching the height of 183.75. But it could not resist the general crypto market trend, and, having made a quick U-turn, went down following the "colleagues", falling to the lows of the last few weeks in the area of 135.00.
As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:
- EUR/USD. More than 70% of experts, supported by graphical analysis on H4 and D1, as well as indicators on H4, expect the pair to continue to grow, which it started to do in the middle of last week. The nearest target is zone 1.2050-1.2100, the next one is 1.2215. Less than one third support the bears this time, but trend indicators on D1 and 15% of oscillators, indicating the pair is overbought, agree with them. In case they win, the pair can return to the horizon 1.1800. The next support is at the level of 1.1715;
- GBP/USD. Considering that the pair has already fully worked out the reversal pattern "double top", most analysts (60%) vote for the pair's growth. This script is also supported by graphical analysis. Signals that the pair is oversold are sent by 20% of oscillators on D1 as well. The nearest resistance is 1.3625, the target is 1.3765.
As for the remaining 40% of experts, in their opinion, the pair could fall to the level of 1.3450, and, in case of its breakdown, 150 points lower, to support 1.3300;
- it is impossible to form any consensus on the future of USD/JPY at the moment. Both the opinions of analysts, and the indicators' readings are divided approximately equally: one half are for the growth, one half are for the fall of the pair. As for the graphical analysis, it indicates a further decrease in the pair to the lower boundary of the two-week lateral channel 108.75-110.00 both on H4 and D1. Having reached it, it is quite possible that the pair will turn around and go up to the level of 110.00. This can happen before the end of May, and it is already 70% of experts who agree with this;
- Cryptocurrencies. At the end of Friday, May 11, the pair BTC/USD was slightly below the lower boundary of the three-week side corridor 8.620-9.955. Many analysts believe that if the week does not receive another portion of negative news, the pair will return to the borders of this channel.
However, a number of experts believe that the bitcoin will continue to fall, and in this case it can find a local bottom at the level of 7.720. The pair will be able to get back to the marks around 10,000 only by the very end of May.
Analysts expect downtrends to continue during the coming week for the rest of the currency pairs: ETH/USD, LTC/USD and XRP/USD. However, this correction, in their opinion, will be temporary, and all the pairs are expected to return to the highs of the first week of May, by the end of the month.
Roman Butko, NordFX