Markets enter December with improving sentiment as investors position for the Federal Reserve’s final meeting of the year. The end of quantitative tightening on 1 December and expectations of further rate cuts have kept the US dollar under pressure, supported demand for precious metals and helped risk assets stabilise despite uneven global data.
EUR/USD finished the week near 1.1590 – 1.1600. Gold continues to trade close to its record area, with spot levels around 4,230 dollars and active futures near 4,270. Brent crude is consolidating near 63 dollars per barrel. bitcoin is still recovering after its November correction and is fluctuating around 90,000 – 91,000 dollars.
EUR/USD
EUR/USD spent the week recovering from its mid-month lows and held firmly above 1.1550. Softer US yields and expectations of additional Fed easing helped the pair approach 1.16 by Friday. The euro’s advance is still cautious, as euro area data point to gradual improvement but no sustained momentum in industry or sentiment indicators.
The nearest support is located at 1.1550 – 1.1520. A break below this zone would open the way toward 1.1490 and then 1.1400 – 1.1365. Resistance is concentrated around 1.1660 – 1.1700, followed by 1.1760 – 1.1800. A firm close above that area would strengthen the medium-term bullish structure and bring the 1.20 – 1.22 region back into focus.
Baseline view: neutral with a slightly constructive bias while the pair holds above 1.1520 – 1.1490. Short-term dips may attract buying interest unless US data surprise to the upside.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
Bitcoin attempted to stabilise after one of its weakest months since 2022. From lows below 85,000 dollars earlier in November, BTC/USD recovered toward 90,000 – 91,000 by the weekend. Even so, it remains well below the October peak above 120,000 as forced liquidations and risk reduction continue to weigh.
The first key support sits at 88,000 – 86,000, followed by 84,000 – 82,000. A break below this region would expose 80,000 – 78,000 and potentially 76,000 – 72,000. Initial resistance lies at 92,000 – 95,000. A sustained breakout above 100,000 – 105,000 would signal that the broader corrective phase is ending.
Baseline view: neutral to bearish while bitcoin remains below the 92,000 – 95,000 zone. Rallies remain corrective unless buyers regain control above 100,000.
Brent Crude Oil
Brent crude continues to consolidate within a broad downward structure, finishing the week near 63 dollars per barrel. Prices remain pressured by expectations of higher non-OPEC supply and uncertainty ahead of the upcoming OPEC+ meeting. Geopolitical risks and low inventories occasionally support the market but have not altered the broader trend.
Support is seen near 61.5 – 61.0. A move below this area would target 59.0 – 57.5. Resistance remains at 64.5 – 65.5 and then 67.5 – 68.5, where earlier breakdown levels and medium-term moving averages converge.
Baseline view: neutral to mildly bearish below 67.5 – 68.5. Without stronger supply cuts or a clear improvement in demand, rallies are likely to be capped.
Gold (XAU/USD)
Gold remains one of the strongest assets heading into December. Spot prices closed the week near 4,230 dollars, while futures traded around 4,270. Expectations of additional Fed easing, declining real yields and persistent geopolitical uncertainty continue to support the metal. With quantitative tightening ending on 1 December, liquidity conditions favour medium-term demand for gold.
Initial support lies at 4,180 – 4,150, followed by 4,120 – 4,080. Deeper pullbacks toward 4,020 – 3,980 are possible on stronger US data but would still sit within the broader uptrend. Resistance remains near 4,260 – 4,280, with a breakout opening the way toward 4,320 – 4,350.
Baseline view: buy-on-dips while prices hold above 4,000 – 3,950. The broader uptrend remains intact unless real yields rise sharply.
Conclusion
The first week of December begins with a weaker dollar, firm precious metals and cautious stabilisation in risk assets. EUR/USD should stay supported on dips unless US figures sharply challenge expectations for further easing. bitcoin is stabilising but remains vulnerable below key resistance. Brent crude trades defensively as supply expectations dominate. Gold continues to benefit from the shift in monetary policy and elevated geopolitical uncertainty.
Short-term direction will now depend on early-month activity data, developments at the OPEC+ meeting and positioning ahead of the December Fed decision. Traders should monitor the key levels highlighted above as liquidity conditions evolve into year end.
NordFX Analytical Group
Disclaimer: These materials are not an investment recommendation or a guide for working on financial markets and are for informational purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a complete loss of deposited funds.
Go Back Go Back
