For starters, a few words about last week’s forecast:
- by the end of the week, EUR/USD was supposed to get fixed around 1.0800. Graphical analysis on H4 elaborated that at first, the pair would reach the bottom at 1.0600 and then make every effort to go up to 1.0800. This happened for the most part – EUR/USD was moving down towards the target all week long and on Friday, following the news from the USA, first dropped to 1.0700, then tried to return to the target level and finished the week at 1.0740;
- GBP/USD was predicted to experience some fluctuations within 1.5440-1.5470 at the beginning of the week, after which the pair was supposed to go down. A third of the experts set the weekly bottom at 1.5250. This scenario can be viewed as fulfilled, except for the fact that statistics from Europe and the USA, supported by ECB President Mario Draghi’s speech, gave such a boost to the bears that they pushed the pair down by yet another 200 points – to 1.5025;
- almost all agreed that the pivot point for USD/JPY would be at 121.50 again. It was also said that the pair would continue to try and reach 122.00 at least. All was going according to plan until the release of data from the USA on Friday, after which the pair not only reached the target but also speedily soared up, settling only around 123.20;
- the forecast for USD/CHF was only upward movement. The end target was set at 1.0000-1.0100, right in the middle of which the pair stopped Friday night. Thus, the forecast can be considered 100% correct straight out.
Forecast for the upcoming week.
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on various methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:
- while most indicators in their forecasts for EUR/USD insist on its further fall, the majority of the experts and graphical analysis on H1 tend to believe that the pair will take a breather and move in a sideways channel of 1.0650-1.0850. At the same time, 15% of the analysts reckon that the pair will manage to break through resistance at 1.0900 and even reach 1.1000;
- there’s a similar pattern for GBP/USD. Its sideways trend will be limited by support at 1.4950, resistance at 1.5220 and by a 1.5000 pivot point. Even if most experts talk about a bullish trend, 10% of them believe that the pair may briefly come down to 1.4850;
- as for USD/JPY, of the main interest are the indications of graphical analysis. According to its forecast on H1, the pair may first rise to 123.50-124.00 (50% of the experts) and then go down abruptly. Graphical analysis on H4, 60% of the analysts and the indicators on D1 predict a 121.70-122.00 pivot point and support at 121.00. As for a forecast till the end of the year, both experts and graphical analysis on D1 name 125.30 as the ultimate target;
- graphical analysis on D1 doesn’t rule out that USD/CHF will try to move up towards its 1.0210 high, where it was before Black Thursday, 15 January, and then drop down sharply. The analysts are unanimous that the pair has already reached its target for the near future and now will just be oscillating around the 1.0000 landmark. The main support will be 0.9950, the next – 0.9845. The closest resistance will be 1.0100, with the next at 1.0210.
Roman Butko, NordFX