The week of August 24–28 ended on a sharply risk-off note. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first Jackson Hole keynote dismissed recent soft PCE and CPI prints as evidence of an inflation trend change, sending the dollar broadly higher on Friday and triggering the steepest one-day sell-off in months across gold, silver and crypto. Brent extended its slide as markets priced a lower Hormuz risk premium after Iran and Oman reached a revenue-sharing deal over the strait.
Closing prices, Friday, August 28, 2026: EUR/USD – 1.1585 | Brent Crude – $88.28 | Gold (XAU/USD) – $4,504.10 | Silver (XAG/USD) – $66.26 | Bitcoin – $77,470 | Ethereum – $2,431
Key calendar, August 31 – September 4: Mon – US and Canadian markets closed for Labor Day. Tue – US ISM Manufacturing PMI, Eurozone flash CPI. Wed – US JOLTS, ADP Employment, Fed Beige Book. Thu – US ISM Services PMI, weekly jobless claims. Fri – US Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate, the week's key event. The Iran/Hormuz situation remains the main unscheduled risk.
EUR/USD
Closed at 1.1585 (prev. week 1.1677; 52-week range 1.1325–1.2079; daily: Sell). The euro fell nearly 0.6% on Friday as Warsh's hawkish debut lifted the dollar broadly, overshadowing hot French and Spanish inflation prints that firmed bets on an ECB hike as soon as September. The Fed–ECB policy divergence is now the dominant theme heading into Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls.
Resistance: 1.1650, 1.1710, 1.1760 – Support: 1.1570, 1.1500, 1.1450
Baseline view: cautiously bearish while the dollar holds its post-Jackson Hole bid; only a soft NFP would revive the euro. Base case: 1.1450–1.1760.
Brent Crude Oil
Closed at $88.28 (prev. week $93.93; 52-week range $58.72–$126.41; daily: Sell). Brent gave back over 5% on the week as traders re-priced the Iran standoff as a sanctions story rather than an imminent supply shock, with Goldman Sachs estimating Persian Gulf exports have recovered to 15–16 million barrels per day and Iran and Oman reaching a Hormuz revenue-sharing deal.
Resistance: $90.00, $93.00, $95.00 – Support: $86.00, $84.00, $82.00
Baseline view: corrective while the market prices a lower Hormuz risk premium, though fresh escalation could reverse the move quickly. Base case: $82–$95.
Gold (XAU/USD)
Closed at $4,504.10 (prev. week $4,661.60; 52-week range $3,311.46–$5,602.23; daily: Sell, weekly: Neutral). Gold plunged over 3% on Friday alone – its worst session in months – after Warsh said inflation "has not meaningfully slowed" and reaffirmed the Fed's "firm and fixed" 2% target, sending yields and the dollar sharply higher and erasing most of the week's earlier fiscal-debasement-driven gains.
Resistance: $4,580, $4,660, $4,750 – Support: $4,400, $4,320, $4,250
Baseline view: the medium-term debasement trend is intact, but the market needs to digest the hawkish repricing first; a weak NFP would be the likely catalyst for a fresh leg up. Base case: $4,250–$4,750.
Silver (XAG/USD)
Closed at $66.26 (prev. week $69.01; 52-week range $36.96–$121.67; daily: Sell). Silver tumbled over 4% on Friday, unwinding a failed breakout above $71.00 earlier in the week as the same hawkish remarks that hit gold pushed yields and the dollar higher. The gold/silver ratio held near 67, suggesting silver merely gave back its recent outperformance rather than breaking down independently.
Resistance: $69.00, $71.00, $73.50 – Support: $64.50, $62.00, $60.90
Baseline view: bullish medium-term on the deficit and debasement narrative, but near-term direction now hinges on the September 15–16 FOMC signal and Friday's jobs data. Base case: $60.90–$73.50.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
Trading near $77,470 (prev. week $77,300; 52-week range $57,877–$126,110; daily: Strong Buy, weekly: Strong Buy). Bitcoin was essentially flat on the week but dropped over 3% on Friday alone as Warsh's hawkish tone pulled it back from a test of $80,000–$83,000. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have extended an eight-day inflow streak worth around $2.8 billion, taking August net inflows above $3 billion, the strongest month of 2026, which continues to provide a structural bid beneath the market.
Resistance: $80,000, $83,000, $90,000 – Support: $75,000, $73,000, $70,000
Baseline view: constructive while spot-ETF inflows persist, though a decisive break above $83,000 likely needs a dovish surprise from the jobs report. Base case: $70,000–$90,000.
Ethereum (ETH/USD)
Trading near $2,431 (prev. week $2,520; 52-week range $1,388–$4,956; daily: Neutral). Ether pulled back around 3% on Friday alongside the broader crypto market as Warsh's remarks triggered a wave of de-risking, but it remains well within its recent range after clearing the $1,925–2,050 resistance zone earlier in August. Continued institutional inflows via spot ETH ETFs remain the key support into next week.
Resistance: $2,500, $2,600, $2,750 – Support: $2,300, $2,150, $2,000
Baseline view: bullish medium-term while institutional ETF inflows continue, though a pullback toward $2,000–2,150 would be a healthy retest. Base case: $2,000–$2,750.
Conclusion
Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls report is the week's dominant event, arriving on the heels of Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole debut, with US ISM Manufacturing and Services PMIs, JOLTS, ADP and the Fed's Beige Book also on the docket; Monday's US Labor Day holiday will thin early-week liquidity. The Iran/Hormuz situation remains the main unscheduled risk. EUR/USD at 1.1585: base case 1.1450–1.1760. Brent at $88.28: base case $82–$95. Gold at $4,504.10: base case $4,250–$4,750. Silver at $66.26: base case $60.90–$73.50. Bitcoin at $77,470: base case $70,000–$90,000. Ethereum at $2,431: base case $2,000–$2,750.
NordFX Analytical Group
Disclaimer: These materials are not an investment recommendation or a guide for working on financial markets and are for informational purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a complete loss of deposited funds.
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