Markets enter the first week of November with geopolitics and policy risk stacked on top of each other. The Iran war, now in its eighth month, is back at the centre of the oil market: a tanker was struck in the Strait of Hormuz on Friday, Washington is weighing renewed military options, and President Trump has signalled that further strikes could follow the US midterm elections on Tuesday, November 3. Brent eased 3.3% on the week to $113.10 but remains elevated, feeding the inflation fears behind the central-bank stance: the Federal Reserve held at 3.75%–4.00% in a 10–2 vote with a December hike still priced in, the ECB held at 2.50% after an open debate on tightening, and the Bank of Japan kept its rate at 1.25% in an 8–1 vote that included a dissent for an immediate hike.
Risk assets cracked on Friday. An AI cash-burn rout sent the S&P 500 down 1.8% and the Nasdaq Composite down 2.9%, with Intel falling 28.6% and the Nasdaq booking its worst month since March 2025. Money rotated into Treasuries, where the 10-year yield dropped to 4.93%, and into the yen, while gold slid to a one-year low and silver fell below $50 for the first time since November 2025. Crypto took its own hit from the Binance security breach disclosed on Thursday: roughly $6.3 billion in client assets was moved out of the exchange's wallets, the largest crypto theft on record, with about $3 billion frozen on-chain. Bitcoin and Ethereum ended the week lower by 4.3% and 5.6%.
Closing prices, Friday, October 30: EUR/USD – 1.1160 | Brent – $113.10 | Gold – $3,884.90 | Silver – $49.14 | Bitcoin – $77,302 | Ethereum – $2,243.75
Key calendar, November 2–6: Mon 2 – US ISM Manufacturing PMI; Tue 3 – US midterm elections, RBA decision, US JOLTS (September); Wed 4 – US ISM Services PMI, Riksbank decision; Thu 5 – Bank of England decision with Monetary Policy Report, Norges Bank decision; Fri 6 – US nonfarm payrolls (October). Binance has said deposits and withdrawals should resume by Sunday.
Instrument | Close, Oct 30 | Close, Oct 23 | Weekly change | Base case, Nov 2–6 |
EUR/USD | 1.1160 | 1.1203 | –0.4% | 1.1080–1.1260 |
Brent | $113.10 | $116.93 | –3.3% | $108–$120 |
Gold | $3,884.90 | $4,010 | –3.1% | $3,780–$4,000 |
Silver | $49.14 | $53.96 | –8.9% | $46.50–$52.00 |
Bitcoin | $77,302 | $80,797 | –4.3% | $72,000–$80,000 |
Ethereum | $2,243.75 | $2,377.50 | –5.6% | $2,050–$2,380 |
EUR/USD
Closed at 1.1160 (prev. week 1.1203). The euro lost 0.4% on the week and 0.7% in October, weighed down by wider French sovereign spreads, eurozone Q3 GDP growth slowing to 0.4% from 0.6%, and a dollar supported by rate-hike pricing. Christine Lagarde confirmed that the ECB debated a hike before holding the deposit rate at 2.50%, but the euro could not capitalise on the hawkish tone, and her surprise plan to step down in February adds another layer of uncertainty.
Resistance: 1.1215 – 1.1260 – 1.1330 – Support: 1.1136 – 1.1113 – 1.1050
Baseline view: the euro stays under pressure while energy costs, French spreads and December hike pricing favour the dollar. A haven-led dollar dip after the midterms could lift the pair toward 1.1215–1.1260, but only a close above 1.1260 would challenge the downtrend; a break below 1.1113 opens 1.1050. Base case: 1.1080–1.1260.
Brent Crude Oil
Closed at $113.10 (prev. week $116.93; 52-week range $58.72–$126.41). Oil lost 3.3% on the week, but stayed bid near the upper end of its range after a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz was struck by an explosive device, while Houthi missile attacks on Saudi targets, including a claimed strike on the Ras Tanura refinery, keep the geopolitical premium elevated. Tehran has reportedly rejected a proposed settlement and the US blockade remains in place.
Resistance: $114.30 – $118.00 – $126.41 – Support: $111.00 – $108.00 – $105.00
Baseline view: the market is positioned for escalation after November 3, which leaves oil exposed in both directions. Renewed US strikes would likely push Brent toward the upper end of the range and test the 52-week high, while a diplomatic breakthrough could trigger a sharp unwind from stretched levels. Base case: $108–$120.
Gold (XAU/USD)
Closed at $3,884.90 (prev. week $4,010; 52-week high $5,595.46). Gold lost 3.1% on the week and touched a one-year low on Friday as higher energy prices, persistent inflation and the prospect of a December Fed hike outweighed its safe-haven appeal. Notably, the metal found no bid even as equities sold off, a sign that rate expectations, not fear, are driving the price.
Resistance: $3,975 – $4,010 – $4,106 – Support: $3,850 – $3,800 – $3,700
Baseline view: gold remains on the defensive while the market prices more Fed tightening. A softer payrolls print on Friday or a risk-off shock after the midterms could spark a technical rebound toward $3,975–$4,010, but the broken support zone near $4,010 now acts as resistance. Base case: $3,780–$4,000.
Silver (XAG/USD)
Closed at $49.14 (prev. week $53.96; 52-week range $45.54–$121.67). Silver dropped 5.8% on Friday alone and slipped below $50 for the first time since November 2025, taking its weekly loss to 8.9%. The gold/silver ratio widened to roughly 79, confirming that the industrial side of silver is also under pressure from the equity rout.
Resistance: $50.00 – $52.17 – $54.00 – Support: $48.87 – $46.87 – $45.54
Baseline view: after an extremely oversold close, a relief bounce toward $50–$52 is plausible, but the trend remains down and $46.87 is the level that matters; a break below it would expose the 52-week low at $45.54. Base case: $46.50–$52.00.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
Closed at $77,302 (prev. week $80,797; 52-week range $57,833–$116,077). Bitcoin fell more than 4% as the Binance breach became public and ended the week 4.3% lower at $77,302, below the psychological $80,000 level it had defended through most of October. Binance said a compromised laptop gave an attacker access to a service container used to submit unauthorised withdrawals, reported no evidence of a wallet private key leak, and pledged to cover all losses from its SAFU fund. Blockchain analysts attribute the theft to North Korea's TraderTraitor group, the same actor linked to the $1.5 billion Bybit hack in February 2025.
Resistance: $78,000 – $80,000 – $81,100 – Support: $75,000 – $72,500 – $70,000
Baseline view: the hack is a confidence shock rather than a solvency event, and the market will watch whether Binance resumes withdrawals on schedule. Bitcoin is also trading in tandem with AI stocks, so Nasdaq direction after the midterms and Friday's payrolls will matter as much as exchange headlines. Failure to reclaim $80,000 keeps the risk tilted toward $72,500. Base case: $72,000–$80,000.
Ethereum (ETH/USD)
Closed at $2,243.75 (prev. week $2,377.50; 52-week range $1,508–$4,252). Ether lost 5.6% on the week and fell 4.6% at the first reports of the Binance breach. Circle, Tether and Ripple moved to freeze funds tied to the hack, helping lock about $3 billion of the roughly $6.3 billion taken, and Binance has said it will publish a technical post-mortem once the investigation is complete.
Resistance: $2,300 – $2,390 – $2,470 – Support: $2,200 – $2,100 – $2,000
Baseline view: ether remains the higher-beta leg of the crypto complex and is likely to underperform on any further risk-off move. A recovery above $2,390 would erase last week's losses, but the more probable path is a test of the $2,100–$2,200 zone first. Base case: $2,050–$2,380.
Conclusion
The week is dominated by binary risks: the US midterms on November 3 and the possibility of renewed US military action against Iran afterwards, the Bank of England and RBA decisions, and Friday's US payrolls, which will shape the December Fed debate. Last week ended with EUR/USD at 1.1160 (base case 1.1080–1.1260), Brent at $113.10 (base case $108–$120), gold at $3,884.90 (base case $3,780–$4,000), silver at $49.14 (base case $46.50–$52.00), Bitcoin at $77,302 (base case $72,000–$80,000) and Ethereum at $2,243.75 (base case $2,050–$2,380). Oil is the instrument most exposed to a geopolitical shock, precious metals are driven by rate expectations, and crypto must absorb both the Binance fallout and the AI-led equity sell-off.
NordFX Analytical Group
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