The week's dominant story was a collision between an escalating Middle East conflict and hardening Fed rate-hike bets. Houthi forces moved to consolidate control over the Red Sea port of Mokha near the Bab el-Mandeb strait, adding to tension already building around the Strait of Hormuz, and Brent briefly touched close to $110 – a roughly four-month high – before paring gains on reports of possible diplomatic efforts to manage Hormuz shipping. On the inflation front, Thursday's Producer Price Index showed annual producer inflation accelerating to 5.4%, and Friday's Consumer Price Index confirmed headline inflation holding at 3.4% with a hotter-than-expected core reading. The CME FedWatch Tool now prices an 88% probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike at next week's meeting, up sharply from just above two-thirds odds a day earlier – a stark contrast to the rate-cut expectations that have driven markets for much of the year.
Closing prices, Friday, September 11, 2026: EUR/USD – 1.1597 | Brent Crude – $104.47 | Gold (XAU/USD) – $4,390.00 | Silver (XAG/USD) – $65.02 | Bitcoin – $77,201 | Ethereum – $2,470
Key calendar, September 14–18: Tue – Chinese Industrial Production and Retail Sales. Wed – FOMC rate decision and Summary of Economic Projections (dot plot), US Retail Sales, UK CPI, Eurozone Industrial Production. Thu – Bank of England rate decision, Eurozone final CPI, US Philly Fed Index. Fri – Bank of Japan announcement, Japanese CPI, UK Retail Sales, US Industrial Production. The Middle East conflict around the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz remains the main unscheduled risk.
EUR/USD
Closed at 1.1597 (prev. week 1.1614; 52-week range 1.1325–1.2079; daily: Sell, weekly: Neutral). The euro slipped modestly on the week, steadying after a volatile reaction to Friday's US CPI print which briefly pushed the pair to an intraday low near 1.1570 before it pared losses on the in-line headline figure.
Resistance: 1.1650, 1.1710, 1.1760 – Support: 1.1570, 1.1520, 1.1450
Baseline view: capped while the pair holds below 1.1650, with next week's Fed decision the dominant swing factor – a confirmed hike favors a slide toward 1.1520, a surprise hold opens a relief rally toward 1.1710. Base case: 1.1450–1.1760.
Brent Crude Oil
Closed at $104.47 (prev. week $95.85; 52-week range $58.72–$126.41; daily: Strong Buy, weekly: Strong Buy). Brent surged more than 6% in a single session this week after reports that Houthi forces had taken the Red Sea port of Mokha, touching an intraday high near $110 before retreating nearly 3% on reports of possible diplomatic efforts around Hormuz shipping, still ending the week up close to 9%.
Resistance: $107.75, $110.00, $115.00 – Support: $100.00, $97.00, $94.00
Baseline view: bullish while the Middle East risk premium persists; RBC Capital Markets flags $120 as a plausible year-end target if the conflict widens, while any de-escalation risks a sharp pullback toward $95–$100. Base case: $94–$115.
Gold (XAU/USD)
Closed at $4,390.00 (prev. week $4,477.20; 52-week range $3,511.19–$5,595.46; daily: Buy, weekly: Strong Buy). Gold fell nearly 2% on the week as the stronger-than-expected PPI print revived Fed hike bets and lifted the dollar, though the metal bounced off a one-week low near $4,300 to reclaim its 100-day moving average following Friday's in-line CPI.
Resistance: $4,450, $4,500, $4,550 – Support: $4,300, $4,269, $4,200
Baseline view: the safe-haven bid from Middle East tensions is fighting the drag of higher real yields; a confirmed Fed hike risks a retest of $4,269, while a dovish surprise reopens $4,450–$4,500. Base case: $4,200–$4,550.
Silver (XAG/USD)
Closed at $65.02 (prev. week $66.82; 52-week range $41.15–$121.79; daily: Neutral, weekly: Strong Buy). Silver tumbled sharply on Thursday's hot PPI data, touching an intraday low near $62.94, before rebounding into Friday's close as traders bought the dip ahead of CPI, though the pair remains capped below the $64.10–$65.40 neckline zone.
Resistance: $68.30, $71.00, $73.50 – Support: $64.00, $62.00, $60.00
Baseline view: near-term momentum stays fragile after Thursday's selloff, risking a slide toward $60.00 if support fails; a confirmed break above $68.30 would revive the medium-term bullish structure. Base case: $60.00–$73.50.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
Closed near $77,201 (prev. week $81,100; 52-week range $57,877–$126,110; daily: Sell, weekly: Neutral). Bitcoin fell more than 5% on the week, sliding from above $81,000 as hawkish Fed repricing weighed on risk appetite; a Friday rally attempt toward $79,500 was quickly rejected, leaving the pair back near $77,000–$77,200 support into the weekend.
Resistance: $79,500, $82,000, $86,000 – Support: $76,000, $72,000, $69,500
Baseline view: momentum indicators sit near neutral to bearish with no strong directional signal; reclaiming $79,500 is needed to revive the bullish trend, while a break of $76,000 risks an extension toward $72,000. Base case: $69,500–$86,000.
Ethereum (ETH/USD)
Closed near $2,470 (prev. week $2,524; 52-week range $1,507.05–$4,765.41; daily: Buy, weekly: Buy). Ether slipped just over 2% on the week, consolidating below the $2,500–$2,560 resistance zone as the RSI cooled to 58 after August's rally, though continued spot-ETF inflows and falling exchange balances kept the broader structure intact.
Resistance: $2,515, $2,650, $2,750 – Support: $2,433, $2,300, $2,150
Baseline view: constructive medium-term while ETF inflows continue, with a break above $2,515 opening $2,650; a hawkish Fed surprise is the main downside risk toward $2,300–$2,433. Base case: $2,150–$2,750.
Conclusion
Next week's Fed decision on September 16 is the dominant event, arriving with markets pricing an 88% probability of a 25-basis-point hike after back-to-back hot PPI and CPI prints; the Bank of England and Bank of Japan also meet, and Chinese activity data, UK inflation, and US Retail Sales round out a heavy calendar. The Middle East conflict around the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz remains the main unscheduled risk after Brent's four-month high. EUR/USD at 1.1597: base case 1.1450–1.1760. Brent at $104.47: base case $94–$115. Gold at $4,390.00: base case $4,200–$4,550. Silver at $65.02: base case $60.00–$73.50. Bitcoin at $77,201: base case $69,500–$86,000. Ethereum at $2,470: base case $2,150–$2,750.
NordFX Analytical Group
Disclaimer: These materials are not an investment recommendation or a guide for working on financial markets and are for informational purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a complete loss of deposited funds.
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