First, a review of last week’s events:
EUR/USD. The Federal Reserve has left the interest rate unchanged, at 2.5%, and is no longer going to raise it this year. The Fed also lowered its forecasts for US GDP and inflation and raised the unemployment forecast for 2019-2021.
First, a review of last week’s events:
EUR/USD. During the whole week, the European currency was pushed up not only by the growth of the Euro Stoxx 600 index, accompanied by the pigeon rhetoric of the ECB Head Mario Draghi, but also, above all, by an optimistic attitude regarding the exit conditions (and perhaps not the exit) of the UK from the EU. As a result, the pair re-consolidated within the medium-term corridor 1.1215-1.1570, in which it has been moving since end October 2018, and even approached its central line, reaching a height of 1.1338 on Wednesday, March 13.
First, a review of last week’s events:
EUR/USD. The pair collapsed on Thursday, March 7, after the ECB announced that it was not worth waiting for the increase in interest rates this autumn. The earliest when this can happen is 2020. In addition, it became known that the European regulator plans to launch LTRO (Long Term Refinancing Operation) in September - a program to refinance European banks at low interest rates. If we add the reduction in forecasts for GDP and inflation to this, as well as statistics on foreign trade of China that are not the best for the Eurozone, the picture for the European currency is rather sad.
First, a review of last week’s events:
EUR/USD. For the first half of the week, the euro was growing due to expectations that the UK’s exit from the EU will be postponed indefinitely. The pair rose above the center line of the medium-term corridor 1.1300-1.1500. However, the last day of winter, February 28, made its own adjustments, inspiring fans of the dollar. The estimate of US GDP for 2018 turned out to be much higher than the forecast. A very strong index of business activity in Chicago played in favor of the dollar. As a result, the pair went down, but the joy of the bears was short-lived. The impulse was so weak that it could not even come close to the support of 1.1300. And after the publication of the ISM Business Activity Index on March 1, which turned out to be worse than the previous value, and worse than the forecast, the pair went up again. This was followed by another unsuccessful attempt to break through the defenses of the bulls, after which the pair completed the week at 1.1365.
First, a review of last week’s events:
EUR/USD. For almost the entire week, the pair stayed where it had been repeatedly a week, a month, and two or three months ago. Apart from the rare short-term breakthroughs, the pair cannot break out of the medium-term corridor 1.1300-1.1500. If we expand this channel to extremum points, it will be slightly wider: 1.1215-1.1570.
First, a review of last week’s events:
EUR/USD. Recall that the expert community was not able to form a more or less definite opinion on the movement of this pair last week. This was due to the lack of clarity on both Brexit and the US-China negotiations. In addition, analysts were waiting for the release of data on GDP in Germany and the EU, as well as inflation and retail sales in the US. And if Europe showed an expected growth of 1.2%, and Germany rose by 0.2% (from -0.2% to 0.0%), the data from the USA caused a strong alarm in the market. Retail sales fell by 1.2%, the maximum value in 10 years. As a result, the dollar index suspended growth and moved away from two-month highs.
The dollar has also stopped growing to the European currency. However, if we sum up the results of the whole five-day week, the victory nevertheless remained with the “American”: having started from the level of 1.1320, the pair finished the week at the level of 1.1295.
First, a review of last week’s events:
EUR/USD. One of the development scenarios, supported, however, by only 30% of experts, suggested a decline of the pair to the lower border of the medium-term side channel 1.1300-1.1500. This is what happened: having lost about 130 points, the pair recorded the week low at the level of 1.1320.
First, a review of last week’s events:
– EUR/USD. In general, the week has not brought any surprises. No one had expected a rate increase at this FOMC meeting, but investors had been worried about the comments of the Fed management on plans for 2019. And here their forebodings about the “pigeon” comments were fully justified. Instead of specific promises, the regulator spoke about the fact that the decision to further rate increase should take into account global economic factors and be extremely balanced. Thus, the uncertainty caused a sharp sell-off of the dollar, as a result of which the pair soared to the upper border of the medium-term lateral channel 1.1300-1.1500. However, then the situation calmed down, and the pair turned to the south...
First, a review of last week’s events:
– EUR/USD. "The "pigeon" rhetoric of ECB Head Mario Draghi during his speech on Thursday January 24 for some time knocked over the pair to the lower border of the medium-term side channel 1.1300-1.1500. However, the bears' joy turned out to be short - lived: having visited the level of 1.1289, the pair turned around and returned to the channel center line, at the 1.1400 zone, by Friday evening. Which is understandable: on closer examination, Draghi didn't say anything special. Noting some strengthening of the labor market and reduction of risks for the Eurozone economy, the head of the ECB said that there was no point in holding a new QE now. At the same time, the time frame for the first raising of the interest rate on the euro remains unchanged...
First, a review of last week’s events:
– EUR/USD. One of the scenarios suggested that the pair would return to the limits of the medium-term lateral channel 1.1300-1.1500, and its central line was called as the main target. It is this scenario that was brought to life. It was already on Tuesday, January 15, that the pair reached the horizon of 1.1400 and then moved along its length up to the weekend, making oscillations in a fairly narrow range. At the same time, the pair was under constant pressure, which allowed the bears to lower it to the level of 1.1360 by the end of the working week.
First, a review of last week’s events:
– EUR/USD. On Wednesday, January 9, after repeated attempts, the pair managed to break through the upper limit of the mid-term side channel in which it was located, starting from November 2018. Having overcome the resistance in the area of 1.1500, it reached the height of 1.1570, after which the followed by a trend reversal, and the pair once again found itself within the above channel, ending the week at 1.1470.
For starter, a few words about the events of the past week, the first working day of which gave unpleasant surprises, which for some were quite pleasant.
– Not having recovered after the New Year celebration, in the morning of January 2, the pair EUR/USD made a sharp dash to the south, losing almost 200 points in a day. Then, however, everything returned to normal, and the pair quickly returned to Pivot Point 1.1400, around which it has been revolving since October 2018. On Friday, January 5, using positive data from the US labor market, the dollar tried to regain the lost ground, but the attempt failed, and the pair ended the week at 1.1394.
What Happened: Year 2018
As usual, Deutsche Bank experts summed up the year at the end of December. And the results were just fantastic, with a negative connotation. 93% of all assets fell in comparison with January 2018, and this figure was the worst in the last 118 years, surpassing even 1920 with its 84%.
First, a review of last week’s events:
– EUR/USD. Despite the fact that, on the eve of the US Federal Reserve interest rate increase, 70% of experts, supported by 100% indicators, expected the dollar to strengthen, nothing of the kind happened. The euro was growing for the whole week, approaching on Thursday the last eight weeks' high at the height of 1.1485...
First, a review of last week’s events:
– EUR/USD. If the basic forecast for the past week had assumed a lateral movement in channel 1.1310-1.1415, the meeting of the European Central Bank and the subsequent conference of the ECB President Mario Draghi were called as the basic event. The ECB made a long-promised decision on January 1, 2019 to complete the quantitative easing program, and Draghi demotivated investors with a statement of increased risks. Based on this, the forecasts of the region’s economic growth for 2018-19 were lowered, to which the euro responded with a fall, but still remained within the limits of the stated channel...
First, a review of last week’s events:
– EUR/USD. Our forecast for relatively weak labor market data turned out to be 100% correct. ADP and ISM in the service sector were not pleasing either, and one of the key indicators, NonFarm Payrolls, fell from 237K to 155K, that is, by as much as 35%...
First, a review of last week’s events:
– EUR/USD. The first good news that pushed the euro up, as expected, was the extraordinary Summit of European leaders on Brexit. Its positive results allowed the European currency to rise to the level of 1.1383 on Monday, November 26, after which the power over the market was seized by the dollar once again...
First, a review of last week’s events:
– EUR/USD. If you look at the chart of the pair, it is clear that by the evening of Friday, November 23, it returned to the values of Friday morning, November 16. That is, the result of the week is close to zero, and the victory for the most accurate forecast can be awarded to trend indicators and oscillators on D1, which had taken a neutral position.
As for the experts, a third of them had predicted the continuation of the pair’s correction up to the level of 1.1450-1.1550 (actual maximum of the week is 1.1470), with the subsequent return of the dollar to growth. This actually did happen, as a result, the pair ended the week at 1.1330...
First, a review of last week’s events:
– EUR/USD. The basic forecast for this pair said that it would not only be able to fall to the year's low at the level of 1.1300 but would also probably break through this support and reach values in the area of 1.1200-1.1250. That was exactly what happened: the pair recorded the week's low on Monday, November 12, dropping to the level of 1.1215.
Then the market started to be ruled by Brexit. The news that the terms for the Great Britain exit of from the EU were finally agreed, pushed the European currency up, and by the end of Friday, the pair had risen 200 points, ending the week session at 1.1415...
First, a review of last week’s events:
– EUR/USD. Recall that, when giving the last week's forecast, 60% of experts had expected the euro to grow to the zone 1.1480-1.1525, and turned out to be 100% right: by Wednesday November 7, the pair had risen to the height of 1.1500...
First, a review of last week’s events:
– EUR/USD. Recall that most experts (55% vs. 45%) voted for further strengthening of the dollar, calling the year's low of 1.1300 recorded on August 15 as the goal. This forecast came completely true, and the pair touched the bottom at this point on the last day of October, which was also facilitated by the optimism of the US President regarding the negotiations with China. True, in contrast to D. Trump, Larry Fink, head of one of the largest BlackRock investment funds, said he expected a full-scale trade war with China in the coming weeks...
First, a review of last week’s events:
– EUR/USD. When giving the forecast, we assumed that none of the events noted in the economic calendar would be able to considerably shake the market. And we were right: the market reacted rather sluggishly even to the ECB chair Mario Draghi 's statements and to the US GDP data, which turned out to be 0.2% higher than expected.
Our second forecast for the past week was the growth of the dollar, which had been supported by 70% of the experts. And it did strengthen against the euro by about 200 points. The EUR/USD pair was going down neatly, step by step, as if by staircase, for the whole week, until it reached the level of 1.1335. After that, the euro won back 65 points, and the pair completed the week in the 1.1400 zone;
First, a review of last week’s events:
– EUR/USD. As expected, the past week was filled with all sorts of events. These included macroeconomic statistics from the USA, data on inflation in Europe, the UK and China, indices of current economic sentiments in Germany and the EU, the meeting of the US Federal Reserve Committee on Open Market, data on China’s GDP and the EU Brexit summit...
First, a review of last week’s events:
– EUR/USD. The US market sees a continuing correction, which leads to a weaker dollar. On Thursday, October 11, the US stock index S&P500 lost the next 2%, causing investors to get rid of dollar assets. The process was also pushed up by the news that Donald Trump wants to meet with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jingping during the G20 summit. This was taken as a possible weakening of the US position. As a result, having made a throw from south to north, the pair returned to the borders of the mid-term side corridor 1.1525-1.1830, which started in May, and completed the five-day period at 1.1560...
With the cryptocurrency market falling, the noble yellow metal can become one of the most attractive tools for financial traders and speculators.
First, a review of last week’s events:
– EUR/USD. As expected, the last week had a lot of trouble for both the euro and the US dollar. The pair visited both the upper and lower boundaries of the medium-term side corridor 1.1525-1.1830 during the last five days. In the end, the victory was with the dollar. The reason for this were the Fed meeting results, along with the growth of US GDP and inflation in the Eurozone, as well as problems in Italy, whose government published the budget for 2019. with a deficit of 2.4% (instead of the expected 2%). As a result, having shown volatility of 245 points, the pair completed the weekly session at 1.1602...
First, a review of last week’s events:
– EUR/USD. Recall that most experts (55%) had voted for the further growth of the pair and its transition to the zone 1.1745-1.1845. This forecast turned out to be 100% true, and the pair fixed the weekly high at 1.1802 on Friday morning, having risen by 180 points in five days.
The main reason for the dollar to weaken was the hope that China and the United States could avoid a full-scale trade war. The devastating victory of the Americans became less obvious, and investors turned their attention to more risky assets and started to get rid of the dollar mass.
First, a review of last week’s events:
– EUR/USD. The dollar was under pressure for all five days, the difference between the weekly high and the low was about 200 points. Nothing special was said at the press conference following the ECB meeting, the plan to tighten the Eurozone monetary policy remained unchanged. Therefore, the main reasons for the US currency fall can be named as deflation in the US, called by the experts "the Fed's nightmare", and the decision of the Turkish regulator to increase the interest rate by as much as 625 points. This resulted in the Turkish lira going up and pulling up not only the currencies of developing countries, but also the euro...
First, a review of last week’s events:
– EUR/USD. As for the trends and their changes, the forecast given last week turned out to be absolutely accurate: starting from Tuesday, September 6, we saw the weakening of the dollar and the pair's growth, and the strengthening of the dollar and the fall of the pair at the end of the week, thanks to the positive data on the labor market in the US. As for the volatility, even despite the end of the summer, it was significantly lower than expected: the maximum range of fluctuations was only 130 points. The market reacted sluggishly even to the growth of NFP (Non-farm Payrolls) by 36.7% (from 147K to 201K), and as a result, the pair completed the five-day period at 1.1552, improving the dollar position by only 50 points...
First, a review of last week’s events:
– EUR/USD. As expected, the week was full of multidirectional economic news, which caused first growth, and then the fall of this pair. Recall that 45% of experts, relying on the problems in the US-Chinese negotiations and the contradictions between the US president and the head of the Fed, predicted a further weakening of the dollar and the growth of the pair to the height of 1.1750. As a result, the pair reached the high at 1.1735.
Weak statistics from the eurozone supported those 35% of analysts who had talked about strengthening the dollar. As a result, those 25% of experts proved to be completely right, who could not decide on the direction of the main trend, because, after the week's fluctuations, the pair eventually returned to the values of a week ago and completed the five-day period at 1.1600.
If we look at the charts D1 and W1, it is clear that after the August peak and fall to 1.1300 the pair has once again entered the side channel 1.1575-1.1750, where it moved all mid-summer...
