First, a review of last week’s forecast:
– EUR / USD. Analysts' votes last week were divided almost evenly. More precisely, 55% of them sided with the "bears" and 45% with the "bulls". The fate of the pair was decided by the good and mighty of the world: first it grew following the statements of the US Treasury Secretary on the weak dollar; then it was pushed back up by ECB President Mario Draghi’s speech, resulting in a three-year high at 1.2537...
First, a review of last week’s forecast:
– EUR/USD. The pair never escaped the landmark "zone of the decade", defined by the two-year high of 2017 and the lows of June 2010 and July 2012. Therefore, we did not make a definite forecast last week. Uncertainty reigned in the camp of experts: 40% voted for the growth of the pair, 40% for its fall, and 20% shrugged their shoulders. All were right: the pair grew a little, then declined, then grew again. It eventually finished the week not far from where it started, at 1.2215.
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First, a review of last week’s forecast:
– EUR/USD. Recall that the majority of experts (55%), supported by graphical analysis and oscillators on D1, voted for the pair's growth to 1.2200. This forecast turned out to be 100% true: it was at this point that the pair ceased movement at midnight on Friday 12 January. It should be noted that the publication of the minutes of the last ECB meeting, according to which the regulator is planning to curtail its 2.5 trillion-euro bond-buying programme in 2018 - a programme which should seriously accelerate the recovery of the eurozone - contributed to such impressive growth of the euro...
First, a review of last week’s forecast:
– The markets are apparently still on winter vacation. Hence, the pair EUR/USD spent five days in the very narrow lateral channel of 1.2000-1.2085 and completed the five-day period in the same place where it started at 1.2030...
First, a review of last week’s forecast:
– The Christmas holidays simply cannot help affecting financial market participants. They are the reason most analysts expected EUR/USD to move in the rather narrow range of 1.1685-1.1900. In fact, this channel turned out to be even narrower, ending up being 1.1717-1.1862, with the week’s fluctuations not exceeding 150 points. Thus, the week produced no real results: the pair ended it in almost the same place where it started, namely in the 1.1750 zone...
First, a review of last week’s forecast:
– Medium-term forecasts often come true much faster than expected. 65% analysts had expected that EUR/USD would test the midpoint of the 1.1575-1.2090 side channel - along which it has been moving for several months - in the medium term. However, it was just last week that the pair once again returned to the August values, completely defying the bulls' short-term expectations...
First, a review of last week’s forecast:
– As practice shows, if at least 25-30% of oscillators signal that a pair is oversold or overbought, one should expect a correction. This is what happened last week with the EUR/USD. At the beginning of the week, it seemed to have gone north, continuing the main trend of November, but the bulls' strength quickly dried up, and soon the pair retreated to where one third of analysts and oscillators had indicated - to the local bottom in zone 1.1800. However, while the pair was falling, the bulls regained their forces and by the end of the week they managed to bring it back to the level of 1.1900 - practically to the same place where the pair started on Monday...
To begin with, a few words about the forecast for the previous week, which turned out to be accurate either fully or 90% accurate for all four currency pairs:
– Regarding EUR/USD, we named the forecast based on graphical analysis as the most promising one last week. Our decision was not a mistaken one. Recall that, according to readings on H4, the pair was expected to spend some time moving in the side corridor in the 1.1700 to 1.1860 range. After hitting the lower border of this channel, it was expected to sharply rise. This is exactly what happened: having designated a local minimum at the level of 1.1712 and being propelled by Trump's decision regarding North Korea and news from the US Federal Reserve, the pair started heading north on 21 November. It reached its maximum at 1.1943 by the end of the week...
First, a review of last week’s forecast:
– Recall that, when giving the forecast for the EUR/USD, the overwhelming majority of experts (65%) supported the growth of this pair. In their opinion, having beaten off strong support/resistance level 1.1665, the pair should go up - first to the height of 1.1725, and then another 100 points higher...
First, a review of last week’s forecast:
– Just this summer, strategists of many large international banks had designated the 2015 and 2016 highs in the zone 1.15-1.16 as momentous for EUR/USD. The past two weeks of November confirmed this: this entire time the pair has been moving east along the horizon 1.1600, and its main fluctuations, aside from rare inconsistencies, were within the boundaries of 1.1575-1.1660. It was in this upper border of the side corridor that the pair completed the weekly session...
According to statistics, more than 85% of transactions in financial markets are made with the participation of the US dollar, and about 30%, with the participation of the Euro. So, what do experts expect from the EUR/USD at the end of 2017 and in 2018?
First, a review of last week’s forecast:
– As the opinions of analysts were split 50/ 50, we had decided not to give a clear forecast for EUR/USD for the second week in a row. In terms of what happened, despite the bulls having an advantage at the beginning of the week, the bears eventually won. The House of Representatives of the US Congress was on their side this time, allowing the Senate to approve Trump's tax reform by a simple majority. But that's not all: on Thursday, 26 October, the dollar experienced a surge of support from the ECB, which decided to extend the QE quantitative easing program and continue buying bonds until the end of September 2018. All this hit the European currency so strongly, that it lost about 250 points against the dollar in two days...
First, a review of last week’s forecast:
– Last week, we were unwilling to give any forecast for EUR/USD pair. Our reluctance proved to be well-founded. Recall that there was a complete discord both among experts and among indicators: some were looking to the north, some south, and some were simply shrugging shoulders, unable to predict anything. The pair seemed to feel it: it first went down, then up, then down again ... As a result, it did not opt for either direction, and finished the five-day period near 1.1780, the Pivot level, around which it has been gravitating for four weeks...
First, a review of last week’s forecast:
– Recall that an overwhelming majority of experts expected a minor strengthening of the dollar. According to their forecasts, EUR/USD would fall to support 1.1660. This did not happen, however, and the minimum of the week was fixed 60 points higher, at the level of 1.1720. The forecast which was given by graphical analysis, supported by indicators on H4 and only 15% of analysts, turned out to be correct. According to this scenario, the pair was expecting a trend reversal and a move to the north, first to resistance 1.1835, and in the event of its breakdown, even higher, to 1.2035. This scenario was indeed the one that played out; however, the pair was unable to settle above the aforementioned resistance and completed the week near 1.1820...
First, a review of last week’s forecast:
– Recall that we weren’t able to word a more or less specific forecast for EUR/USD last week, as the opinions of the experts were split exactly in half: 50% of them voted for the growth of the pair and 50% for its fall. The market literally froze in anticipation of Friday's data on the US labor market; once they were released, however, it reacted to them quite calmly as well. As a result, the pair returned to the August values and completed the week in the zone of the week’s Pivot Point at 1.1733...
First, a review of last week’s forecast:
– The Fed decision on a fourfold increase in the interest rate in 2017-18 continued to dominate over the pair EUR/USD, as well as the results of the German elections, not ideal for Frau Merkel. Thanks to these factors, as predicted by most experts, the euro lost more than 230 points by the middle of the week. However, later it played back some losses, rising to the horizon of 1.1815...
First, a review of last week’s forecast:
– EUR/USD. Recall that experts appeared to be completely bewildered when giving last week’s forecast: 40% of them voted for the growth of the pair, 40% for its fall and 20% for a sideways trend. The indicators did not clarify the situation either, showing a very similar dispersion in their readings. Graphical analysis was alone in pointing unambiguously to the north, where the pair indeed went, having reached 1.2033 on Wednesday 20 September.
The main event of the day was an atypical meeting of the US Federal Reserve, which confirmed the expediency of another increase in the interest rate in 2017 followed by three increases in 2018. In addition, the Fed, finally, decided to start reducing its balance. All this led to a sharp increase in the dollar, and the EUR/USD suddenly fell 170 points, stopping at 1.1860. After that, the bulls vigorously won back the losses, and the pair finished the week practically at the same place where it started: near 1.1950, having performed the predicted scenarios of all three groups of experts...
First, a review of last week’s forecast:
– EUR/USD. Recall that 40% of experts and graphical analysis on H4 expected the pair would transition into a lateral trend in the 1.1885-1.2070 range. At the same time, a number of oscillators on D1 signaled it was overbought, which indicated a possible fall at the beginning of the week. This is what happened. By the evening of Wednesday, 13 September, it had reached this lower border; on Thursday, it made an attempt to break through it. However, the bears' forces were already running out, and in just an hour the pair returned to the set limits, completing the week near 1.1960: the level of the central line of the side channel...
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First, a review of last week’s forecast:
– EUR/USD. Since the opinions of the analysts were divided equally, we suggested to focus on the readings of the graphical analysis; both H4 and D1 indicated that the upward trend, which began in January, would continue. The target was the height of 1.2150, which the pair nearly missed, having turned around near the level of 1.2100, subsequently rolling down 70 points and finishing the week at 1.2035...
First, a review of last week’s forecast:
– EUR/USD. Recall that, although a quarter of oscillators were already signaling that this pair had been overbought, the bulk of them, supported by 100% of trend indicators and 40% of experts, insisted that the pair still had enough strength to rise at the very least to 1.2040. This is indeed what it did. On Tuesday, August 29, the pair overcame 1.2000, before rising another 40 points, and then, by inertia, by another 30. Having fixed a maximum at 1.2070, it turned and rushed downwards, having lost 250 points by the last day of summer. The pair completed the first day of autumn at 1.1860...
First, a review of last week’s forecast: thanks to this forecast, traders who took into account the main recommendations of experts and technical analysis, could receive a significant profit. So:
– EUR/USD. The basic forecast, which was sounded by the majority of experts (60%) with the support of technical analysis, spoke about the growth of this pair. And it did go north, starting from Monday. Although at first this movement was not very strong and confident, on Friday, August 25, the pair shot up sharply, reaching the height of 1.1940, supported by the speech of the Federal Reserve Head, Janet Yellen, it finished the week at the height of 1.1921 - near the central level of resistance, indicated by analysts...
First, a review of last week’s forecast:
– EUR/USD. Only 35% of experts expected the pair to fall. However, graphical analysis and a number of oscillators on D1 sided with them. The support at 1.1685 was named as the nearest goal: it was reached by the pair by mid Tuesday. After that, the pair made several more attempts to break through this level, and it even managed to drop 25 points. This was not a true breakthrough, however, and the pair returned to the Pivot Point of the last two weeks in the 1.1755 zone. Thus, the week’s decline was only about 70 points...
First, a review of last week’s forecast:
– EUR/USD. It was not possible to have a more or less homogeneous forecast for this pair in the previous week. Whilst most experts looked to the north, graphical analysis unambiguously pointed to the south, naming 1.1670 as the nearest support level. Opinions of indicators were also divided: about half of the oscillators and trend indicators on H4 turned red, but on D1, the green continued to dominate. Thus, this discord was justified: at the beginning of the week, the pair grew a little, then it fell, reaching the local bottom at 1.1688, and went up again to the Pivot Point of the last two weeks in the 1.1820-1.1840 zone...
First, a review of last week’s forecast:
– 60% of experts called the 2015 maximum at the height of 1.1870 as the nearest target for EUR/USD, the pair reached it on Wednesday. As for a longer-term forecast, 80% of specialists expected the trend to reverse to the south and the pair to start falling. That is what happened on Friday, thanks to the positive data from the US labor market. The NFP indicator rose to 209K instead of the expected 187K, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.3% in July. Taking advantage of this occasion, the bears could drop the pair by 150 points, and it returned to the values of the beginning of the week...
First, a review of last week’s forecast:
– EUR/USD. The upward trend of the pair, which began on New Year's Eve 2017 and which marks a steady fall in the US dollar, was continued last week. Thanks to growing GDP, the US currency had a chance, at least temporarily, to change the situation. However, the growth of the German consumer market turned out to be more impressive, and the pair went up by 100 points, ending the five-day period at 1.1750. Thus, our basic forecast, supported by 55% of experts, graphical analysis and 100% of trend indicators, was justified...
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First, a review of last week’s forecast:
– The main view on EUR/USD was that it would break through1.1500 and grow to the 2016 high at 1.1615. The next target would then be the maximum of August 2015: 1.1715. The main impetus for the pair's upswing was given by the head of the ECB Mario Draghi, who said on Thursday that the euro zone stimulus program (QE) will not end and will remain unchanged. Against the background of these comments, the euro's exchange rate against the dollar jumped by 0.5%, and the pair reached the height of 1.1680 by the end of the week session...
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