First, a review of last week’s events:
– EUR/USD. As expected, the US-China talks did not bring clarity: the only information came from the PRC Ministry of Commerce, which reported that the talks were frank and useful. Such a wording can be considered as the absence of specific results. Speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell was not revolutionary either and dropped the dollar by just 30 points.
In general, over the week, the euro rose by almost 200 points, which, in the first place, was caused by serious problems around the US president and his surrounding, which could turn into prison terms for his assistants and the criminal prosecution of Trump himself. The US decision to postpone the question of raising duties on cars from the EU played in favor of the euro as well. As a result, the pair completed the week session where 45% of experts had expected - at 1.1622, close to resistance 1.1630...
First, a review of last week’s events:
– EUR/USD. Most analysts (60%), supported by graphical analysis and indicators, expected the pair to fall to the 1.1120-1.1300 zone. And indeed, the pair reached the level of 1.1300 on Wednesday August 15, but did not go lower, turned around and returned to zone 1.1400 by the end of the week .Analysts call the stabilization of the situation with the Turkish lira as one of the main reasons for the trend change, although they do not rule out that the lull is temporary, and soon the storm will come again...
First, a review of last week’s events:
– EUR/USD. No matter how you see President Trump, the US economic policy demonstrates obvious success. Forecast for the US GDP in 2018 grows together with stock indexes, and the unemployment rate should go down by the middle of next year to the lowest level for the last 50 years. As a result of the US-led trade wars, the economies of the Eurozone and China have already begun to experience serious problems. Strengthening the success, Donald Trump is likely to increase import duties further, which allows American producers not to be afraid of the dollar strengthening...
First, a review of last week’s forecast:
– EUR/USD. The past week was filled with events, which at another time could initiate quite strong movements in the market. But not now, not at the height of the holiday season. We did not expect any surprises either from the data on the Eurozone GDP or from the values of the consumer price index. There was a little hope for the US Federal Reserve's decision on the interest rate and on the publication of data on the US labor market, but there were no special volatility outbursts there either. Even the drop in the NFP by 36.7% (from 248K to 157K) did not impress the market.
As a result, the situation was as had been expected by many experts: taking into account the standard backlash, the pair stayed within the two-week zone 1.1575-1.1750, reaching a maximum of 1.1745, then groping for the local bottom at 1.1560 and finally ending the five-day session at the mark 1.1567...
First, a review of last week’s forecast:
– EUR/USD. The past seven days, like the previous one and a half months, did not bring any significant events, and the market is in a lazy-holiday mood because of that. The pair's volatility is 130 points, and the maximum deviation from the Pivot Point of the medium-range lateral channel (1.1660) is even less - only 90 points, after which the pair returns to the central zone. So it happened this time as well - at the end of the trading session, it froze at 1.1658...
First, a review of last week’s forecast:
– EUR/USD. Recall that in the opinion of 80% of experts who were supported by graphical analysis on D 1, the pair was supposed to continue its descent to the horizon 1.1500. An alternative point of view was presented by only 20% of analysts who expected that it could once again test the level of 1.1790. However, adjustments to all these forecasts have been traditionally made by the summer and vacation season. As a result, the pair, as if tired of lying on the beach, could only lazily rise to the level of 1.1745, and then descend to the level of 1.1574. As for the end of the week, after Donald Trump criticized the Fed policy and the strong dollar, the euro won back the losses, and the pair returned to the upper half of the summer side channel, having stopped at 1.1720...
First, a review of last week’s forecast:
– EUR/USD. The forecast for this pair turned out to be absolutely correct. Recall that it assumed first a small growth of the pair to the resistance of 1.1800 (in reality, it rose to the height of 1.1790), and then a fall (it fell to the level of 1.1620). After that, a rebound followed, and the pair completed the trading session in a strong support/resistance zone 1.1685...
First, a review of last week’s forecast:
– EUR/USD. The forecasts of the majority of experts (55%) included the level of 1.1725, which the pair must have achieved this week. And this was what happened. Positive economic data from Germany as well as not the rosiest statistics from the labor market in the US (NFP declined by 12.7%), and the once again inflaming trade war between the US and China side with the Euro. As a result, the pair gradually, step by step, reached the height of 1.1765. Then a small correction followed, and it completed the trading session at the level of 1.1745...
First, a review of last week’s forecast:
– EUR/USD. The forecast for this pair turned out to be almost 100% correct. Recall that we spoke of a slight increase to 1.1725-1.1750 (and the pair actually climbed to 1.1720), as well as its possible drop and another attempt to test the level of 1.1500 (on Thursday the pair dropped to the horizon 1.1525). In the end, while maintaining the balance between bulls and bears, it returned to the Pivot Point zone for the last one and a half months and completed the five-day period at the level of 1.1680...
First, a review of last week’s forecast:
– EUR/USD. Most experts (65%) expected the pair to make an attempt to break through the 1.1500 support, which actually happened. However, the attempt failed, the bears' strengths weakened and, against the background of a temporary lull in the trade war between the US and China, the dollar lost about 160 points to the euro, pushing the pair to the PivotPoint zone of the last six months and finishing the five-day period at 1.1657...
First, a review of last week’s forecast:
– EUR/USD. Billionaire George Soros is confident that further strengthening of the dollar will lead to a new financial crisis. At the same time, 10 out of 60 analysts interviewed by Reuters believe that the growth of the US currency will be completed within a month, 35 are confident that the strengthening of the dollar will last at least until the fall, and another 15 give the USD growth until the end of the year. Experts from ABN Amro are among the latter, they believe that the euro should fall to the level of 1.1000, and only then, in 2019, it will be able to restore some of the lost ground...
First, a review of last week’s forecast:
– EUR/USD. The basic forecast for this pair, supported by the majority of analysts, assumed its growth to the zone of 1.1800-1.1830. The pair went up indeed, fixing the week's high at 1.1839. So, taking into account the standard backlash, the forecast turned out to be absolutely correct. A rebound followed, and, as a result, the pair completed the trading session at the horizon 1.1770...
First, a few words about the behavior of the major currency pairs and cryptocurrency pairs over the past week:
– EUR/USD. The behavior of this pair at the beginning of the week was determined by the fear of the players over possible political changes in Italy. As a result, the pair dropped to the values of a year ago, closely approaching the 1.1500 mark. However, the situation in the eurozone eventually entered a calmer channel, the Italian populists agreed on the composition of the government, and the dollar gradually began to lose its positions. Against this background, the euro managed to win back about 215 points from the "American", and even the positive data on the US labor market on Friday (NFP increased from 159K to 223K) could not fundamentally change the situation. As a result, the pair completed the five-day period almost in the same place, where it started, in the zone of 1.1660...
Traditionally, summer is the time when business activity slows down: VIPs are basking in the sun on their snow-white yachts, the heads of the Central Banks leave the boring offices, setting important tasks aside for the autumn, and they are followed by ordinary traders who get a break. However, even the summer months can present surprises. Suffice it to recall the referendum on the withdrawal of the UK from the EU in June 2016, the results of which literally shocked all the stock and financial markets.
Such breaking news is not expected in the coming three months, but some events will be able to exert a strong, if not decisive, influence on the formation of exchange rates and trends.
First, a review of last week’s forecast:
– EUR/USD. Recall that about 70% of experts expected that the pair would rise at least to the height of 1.2050. However, the bulls' strength dried up before it approached the level of 1.2000, where the initiative was intercepted by the bears. Trend indicators on D1 and 15% of the oscillators sided with them, giving signals that the pair was overbought. As expected, the pair was quick to reach the horizon 1.1800, and then moved further down, having touched the local bottom at the level of 1.1750...
First, a review of last week’s forecast:
– EUR/USD. Recall that the opinions of experts last week were divided almost evenly: one third sided with the bears, one third sided with the bulls, and 30% took a neutral position, expecting a sideways trend. As a result, as if fulfilling an order, the pair first went down to the level of 1.1822, then rose by 145 points and completed the five-day period almost in the same place where it started, in the zone of 1.1940.
In total, in less than a month, from April 19 to May 09, the pair lost about 580 points, without any serious corrections, which caused serious financial damage to those traders who had opened positions to buy against the trend and could not stand such an impressive drawdown of the deposit...
First, a review of last week’s forecast:
– EUR/USD. For the third week in a row, the dollar continues to strengthen its positions, having won back about 500 points from the euro. Easing of tension in trade relations with China has rendered serious support for the US currency. By Friday, May 04, as most experts (60%) supported by 80% of the indicators had expected, the pair reached the lower border of the 1.1915-1.2085 range, after which a slight rebound followed, and it stopped at 1.1960...
First, a review of last week’s forecast:
– as we said, the key event last week was the ECB President Mario Draghi press conference on Thursday, April 26. The pair EUR/USD had descended to the lower boundary of the three-month lateral channel around 1.2200 by that date. Recall that this behavior had been predicted by almost 100% of experts. But further on, their opinions diverged: 75% expected the pair to go up and return to the mid-term trading range, and 25% were confident that the euro would lose its positions further.
The dispute between the analysts was resolved by Mr. Draghi, who admitted that the Eurozone economy was unlikely to preserve the last year's growth rates. And although he said that the ECB will gradually reduce the QE quantitative easing program, many experts felt that its terms will likely be extended beyond 2018. As a result, the euro lost another 150 points. True, then a rebound occurred and the pair completed the week at 1.2130...
First, a review of last week’s forecast:
– The pair EUR/USD continues to keep in the zone of the 2018 mid-term side channel 1.2200-1.2525, more precisely, in its central part, gradually reducing volatility in comparison with the beginning of this year. Last week, the experts called the horizon 1.2215 as the nearest level of support for it, as for resistance, the horizon 1.2410 was named, in the area of which the pair fixed its minimum - 1.2250 and maximum - 1.2413, showing the fluctuation range of less than 165 points. As for the end of the week session, the pair recorded the result at 1.2288...
For starters, a few words about the forecast for the previous week, which turned out to be absolutely true for many major and cryptocurrency pairs:
– EUR/USD. According to the graphical analysis, the pair was supposed to consolidate in the Pivot Point zone of the medium-term side channel in 2018. The level of 1.2215 was indicated as the lower limit, the upper one was 1.2355. At the same time, 35% of analysts suggested that the US dollar will continue to weaken, provoked by data on the labor market, and the pair would be able to break through 1.2355, rising above this level.
It was this scenario that was implemented. The pair climbed 115 points by the middle of the week, reaching the height of 1.2395, after which it turned and returned to where it had been expected - to the medium-term Pivot Point in the zone of 1.2328...
First, a review of last week’s forecast:
– The forecast for EUR/USD turned out to be generally correct: the pair did not go beyond the 2018 mid-term side channel, going down in anticipation of data on NFP, only to the level of 1.2217. As expected, the Nonfarm payroll sagged significantly, more than three times compared to the values of the previous month, to which the pair could not help reacting. However, the reaction was fairly calm: the dollar lost just 60 points to the euro, after which the pair completed the week in the strong support/resistance zone 1.2280...
First, a review of last week’s forecast:
– 60% of analysts, supported by graphical analysis on D1, 100% of trend indicators and 85% of oscillators on H4, expected the EUR/USD to grow, and this forecast turned out to be correct. The pair coped with the task quickly and, having risen by 125 points on Tuesday, reached the height of 1.2475. After this, the trend reversed, the pair returned to the borders of the mid-term side corridor, where it has been moving for the whole of 2018, and completed the week in the zone of its Pivot Point at 1.2325...
First, a review of last week’s forecast:
– EUR/USD has been in a sideways trend for the whole of March, with a slight predominance of bearish trends. This is exactly the kind of movement that was forecasted last week. Pressed by the bears, the pair tried to reach support at 1.2200, but failed even this, and fixed the local bottom at 1.2239. After that, the pair turned around and completed the trading session in the 2018 Pivot Point zone, at 1.2350...
First, a few words about the forecast for the previous week, which proved fully correct for cryptocurrencies:
– EUR/USD. When giving forecast for this pair, a large number of analysts claimed that the pair would continue to stay in the 1.2150-1.2550 side channel which it has been moving in since mid-January. It ended up doing just that, albeit with volatility even lower than expected - the difference between the highest (1.2412) and the lowest (1.2260) points of the week was only about 150 points. By the end of the week, the pair finished at 1.2288, only 17 points below where it had started...
First, a review of last week’s forecast:
– EUR/USD. Most experts (60%) had expected the growth of the euro first to 1.2400, and then even higher to the highs of past January-February at 1.2500-1.2555. In the first half of the week, the pair did go up, but the bulls’ efforts were enough to raise it only to 1.2445, after which the bears played back all the losses, and the pair finished almost at the same place where it started the week, namely 1.2305...
First, a review of last week’s forecast:
– EUR/USD. Recall that almost 70% of experts, supported by an overwhelming majority of indicators, expected the pair to continue falling, naming the vicinity of 1.2165 as one of the targets. They were right - on 1 March, the pair found a local bottom at 1.2155. But then, thanks to the statements of the new Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, and US President Donald Trump, the dollar began to lose its hard-won positions. Trump's words about the intention to introduce import duties on steel and aluminium led to some talking about a new trade war, especially after the sharp and prompt reaction by the Head of the European Commission. As a result, the pair soared by 170 points and completed the week at 1.2320...
First, a review of last week’s forecast. It should be noted that the forecast for bitcoin and other cryptocurrency pairs proved to be almost 100% correct.
– EUR/USD. Recall that, in the short term, only a third of experts expected this pair to fall. When shifting from the weekly forecast to medium-term forecast, however, the number of supporters of the US currency strengthening increased from 30% to 65%. The dollar decided to get ahead of the events and, starting from Monday, dragged the pair down. Analysts named the levels 1.2335 and 1.2235 as targets. The pair ended up reaching the first of them, and almost got to the second one, fixing the local bottom at 1.2259. It then turned and completed the week in zone 1.2295...
First, a review of last week’s forecast. It should be noted that the forecast for bitcoin and other cryptocurrency pairs proved to be almost 100% true.
– The forecast for EUR/USD once again confirmed that the signals of a quarter of oscillators that the pair is overbought / oversold, provide very good reasons to expect a break in the trend. This time, according to 45% of analysts confirmed by such signals, the pair had been expected to turn north and return to zone 1.2350-1.2530, which was what happened. Starting from Monday, the pair was growing steadily and on Friday, it rose to the highs of the last four weeks, reaching the level of 1.2555. After that, the dollar played back 155 points, and the pair fell to the level of 1.2400...
First, a review of last week’s forecast:
– EUR/USD. The publication of positive data on the labor market in the USA (NFP grew by 25%) on February 2, triggered a panic on American stock exchanges. According to experts, the increase in the number of jobs at the same time with an increase in the average wage indicates not the recovery, but the overheating of the world's largest economy...
First, a review of last week’s forecast:
– EUR/USD. 65% of people thought the dollar would strengthen and the pair would fall. Starting from Monday, the pair obediently went to the target indicated by experts, namely 1.2300. However, a little before reaching the set level of 1.2335, the bears lost all their advantage, and, after two unsuccessful attempts to break through this support, the pair turned north...
